Khamenei’s Legacy and Iran’s Future
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, known for his sharp criticisms of the West, particularly the United States and Israel, has died under the rubble of his compound in Pasteur, Tehran. His life reflects a journey marked by revolutionary fervor and wartime leadership, especially during the Iran-Iraq War.
The Islamic Republic now faces its most significant crisis since the widespread protests that erupted in January. With Khamenei gone, the country has shifted to a temporary leadership system managed by a committee while state institutions work to select a new supreme leader. Speculation surrounds candidates like former reformist President Hassan Rouhani and Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of Ruhollah Khomeini. The atmosphere is charged with a mix of joy, apprehension, and calls for retribution.
It’s clear the Islamic Republic is weakened and widely unpopular. However, it remains to be seen just how close to collapse the regime truly is.
US Diplomacy Under Trump
President Donald Trump’s approach to Iran has not been particularly destructive. His term saw intensified sanctions and the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, kicking off with an unusual meeting between Elon Musk and the Iranian UN ambassador. Since then, Trump has fluctuated between diplomatic and military posturing, occasionally trying out more creative forms of negotiation.
As protests surged, Trump adopted a tone that painted him as an ally of the Iranian people, urging them to rise against their heavily armed oppressors.
It’s noteworthy that during Trump’s presidency, US support for Iranian opposition media has diminished, and soft power initiatives like USAID have practically disappeared. Recent talks in Oman and Geneva hinted at some progress, with Iran making significant concessions to appeal to business-minded individuals in Washington.
Yet, a harsh reality persists: the gaps between both sides are too vast, and longstanding rivalries run deep. There’s a prevailing notion that within the walls of Khamenei’s former office, making a deal with what some call the “Great Devil” is nearly impossible.
Possible Outcomes for the Regime
The essence of the Islamic Republic is rooted in resistance against the United States, which in turn responds to this animosity. Should Trump attempt to install a regime-friendly figure in Tehran, relations are bound to worsen. It’s a cyclical pattern that often ends in repetition.
Despite Trump’s frequent calls for the Iranian people to revolt, the most probable scenarios suggest that the regime might endure or perhaps a coup could place a compliant figure in power, closely aligned with US interests. Recently, Trump has praised various members of his cabinet who might be relevant in this context, though specifics were absent.
However, any cooperation from within the regime with the US seems unlikely in the near term as long as the Islamic Republic retains its grip on its citizens.
On a broader scale, Iranian proxies have yet to act decisively in response to Tehran’s calls. While some rallies supporting Khamenei and opposing the US have occurred in Iraq, the significant damage done recently to regional allies appears to stem from Iran itself. This could indicate that even Iran’s own proxies recognize that aligning with the regime might not be wise at this time.
This situation might reflect a temporary reduction rather than a total collapse of influence. Tehran’s tactic of targeting Gulf and Sunni allies aims to create friction between the US and its partners, yet so far, it has been counterproductive. Arab nations seem to believe that the once formidable Islamic Republic is now teetering on the brink of collapse.
While there may be relief in undermining traditional sectarian rivalries, it’s crucial to avoid fragmented battles that exacerbate Sunni-Shiite tensions across the Middle East. Despite its vulnerabilities, Iran can still impact trade, tourism, and energy across the region.
Assessing Trump’s Objectives
Foreign policy succeeds when tactics align with strategy, grounded in clear logic. Is Trump genuinely aiming for a free Iran governed by enlightened leaders, or is this conflict merely a strategy to push for concessions from a minimally changed Iranian leadership?
Khamenei’s passing has generated some hope among Iranians who have long anticipated it. However, should a devastating conflict erupt, reminiscent of the horrors seen in Iraq or Syria, it’s uncertain how Iranian citizens would feel about US involvement. A new Islamic Republic that is more compliant but still repressive might not be welcomed either.
A comprehensive vision is needed to unify Iranians, one that steps away from extreme nationalism and the oppressive nature of the existing regime. Only then can they look forward to a brighter future where Iran plays a positive, prosperous role globally, reflecting its rich intellectual and cultural heritage.
