Vice President Harris offered optimism for Democrats as the 2024 election cycle heads into its final stages.
There were real concerns that Biden’s continued campaigning could suppress Democratic turnout, which would hurt Democrats’ chances of retaking the House and retaining the Senate.
But all that changed as Harris quickly rose to the top of the list.
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House Democrats’ fundraising has skyrocketed, especially in July. House Democrats were already leading Republicans at the end of June. Republican officials have begged Republicans to step up fundraising. Leaders have urged Republicans to spend to protect the Republican majority.
“It was a fantastic response. Everybody stepped up. A lot of people pledged more money to the committee,” said Rep. Richard Hudson, R-Calif., chairman of the Republican National Congressional Committee. “We don’t have to match them, but we have to get in the game.”
Democrats only need to flip a handful of seats to take control of the House. California and New York are good places for Democrats to pick up seats. But they also need to preserve Democrats in Republican-leaning and battleground districts. Consider Rep. Mary Peltola of Alaska and Rep. Mary Grusenkamp Perez of Washington.
Vice President Kamala Harris was photographed in front of the US Capitol. (Getty Images)
Frankly, it will be difficult for Democrats to hold onto the Senate. Currently, there are 50 senators who are Democratic associates and 49 Republicans in the Senate. There is a temporary vacancy due to the resignation of former Senator Bob Menendez (DN.J.), who was convicted on corruption charges. Senator Joe Manchin (IW.V.), who currently is Democratic associate, is set to retire. Republicans expect West Virginia Governor Jim Justice (R) to win the seat. Democrats will have to hold onto several highly competitive seats in heavily Republican or swing states. Democrats on the ballot this fall include Bob Casey (D-PA), Sherrod Brown (D-OH), Tammy Baldwin (D-WI), Jon Tester (D-MT), and Jacky Rosen (D-NV). Democrats are also looking to hold onto seats in battleground states like Michigan and Arizona, where Sens. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.), who both caucus with the Democratic Party, are retiring.
But Democrats are brimming with optimism, in part because they believe they can sell a more optimistic message than former President Trump’s rhetoric.
“Kamala Harris is an exciting young candidate, she’s the change people have been waiting for,” said Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.), chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. “Donald Trump is a very divisive figure who wants to get people out to the polls in droves and vote no.”
Democrats are now convinced that swing states in the presidential election will be key to winning Senate seats. The theory is that if VP Harris wins Michigan, Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) could beat former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-MI) to succeed Stabenow. Or, if former President Trump wins Nevada, Republican Senate candidate Sam Brown could beat Rosen.
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“Michigan is the center of politics. I can’t be president unless I win Michigan,” Peters said. “We can’t have a majority in the Senate unless we elect Elisa to the United States Senate. She has to win. It’s all up to us.”
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York has insisted he will remain Senate Majority Leader next year.
“We’re going to keep the Senate again, and we’re poised to gain seats,” Schumer said.
Winning seats will be a tough task for Democrats.
I mentioned West Virginia earlier. Even if the Democrats were to win all of those battleground districts, they would still only have 50 seats in the House. Done 50/50 is still a majority. For the past 25 years, when the Senate is split 50/50, it has traditionally (but is by no means set in stone) that the party that wins the presidency wins the majority in the Senate. This is because the Vice President, as the President of the Senate, can break any tie votes. So, it’s possible that VP-elect Walz could give the Democrats a majority. But the only way Democrats can win a majority in the Senate is by defeating the Republican incumbent.
Former US president and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks through bulletproof glass during a campaign rally at the North Carolina Aviation Museum and Hall of Fame in Asheboro, North Carolina, on August 21, 2024. (Photo: Peter Zai/AFP via Getty Images)
But here’s the problem: The Republican seats up for election this year are in Republican-leaning states. Republican Sen. John Barrasso of Wyoming and Republican Sen. Kevin Cramer are unlikely to lose. Former President Trump won nearly 70% of the vote in Wyoming four years ago. Trump won 65% of the vote in North Dakota in 2020.
Sen. Steve Daines (R-Montana), who chairs the National Republican Senatorial Committee and leads the GOP’s Senate reelection effort, mocked Schumer’s proposal.
“He has to win Texas and Florida. He has to beat Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), and that’s just not going to happen,” Daines said on Fox. “They’re fighting as if they’re five points behind, when in fact they’re eight or nine points ahead.”
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), who will step down as minority leader at the end of the year but remain in the chamber, is hoping to establish a new Senate majority in one of his final acts as the top Republican in the chamber.
“I want to hand over to majority leader, not minority leader,” McConnell said. “That’s the focus of my work right now.”
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McConnell is warning voters how he thinks Democrats will act if they keep the Senate.
“Schumer is talking about abolishing the filibuster,” McConnell said.
Messrs. Manchin and Sinema are two of the Senate’s most staunch defenders of tradition, but they are retiring, and some on the left have long pressed Democratic leaders to end the filibuster.
“With a simple majority in the Senate, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico would be admitted as states,” McConnell said.
He argues that this would “permanently mean four new Democratic senators, significantly weakening our side.”
Of course, it’s unclear whether Democrats will be able to retain the Senate, and whether they will be able to abolish the filibuster. And there’s no guarantee that all potential senators from Washington DC and Puerto Rico will be Democrats, much less “forever” Democrats. When Alaska and Hawaii became states in 1959, Alaska was meant to be a “Democrat” state and Hawaii a “Republican” state. But the politics of both states have changed over time. Now Alaska leans Republican and Hawaii leans Democratic.
Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, US Democratic Party vice presidential candidate, delivered a speech on the third day of the Democratic National Convention (DNC) in Chicago, Illinois, USA on August 21, 2024. (Reuters/Mike Seeger/Pool)
Republicans are skeptical that Democrats can maintain their momentum after Chicago.
“They’re in a frenzy right now. That will die down once the convention is over, and the real campaigning starts after Labor Day,” House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-Louisiana, said on Fox. “We’re going to increase our majority and we’re very bullish about November.”
In politics, sometimes a side with favorable polling data will deliberately play it safe by lowering expectations, then surprise everyone by having their candidate actually win.
That’s certainly not the case when you compare Schumer’s predictions of victory in the Senate and Johnson’s predictions of success in the House.
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But politics is also about cheering. We’re in the final stretch, and both sides are now trying to get voters excited for November.
