Even though the Atlantic hurricane season officially starts on June 1, the Fox Prediction Center is keeping an eye on the Caribbean as we approach late May, looking for any early development.
Computer models indicate that a broad area of low pressure might appear near Central America starting next week and continuing into the weekend.
“There’s agreement among various models predicting an array of low-pressure systems from the Pacific coast of Central America down to Colombia,” explained Bryan Norcross, a hurricane specialist at Fox Weather.
This emerging tropical threat may be linked to something called the Gaia of Central America, known for historically spawning tropical storms in the Caribbean or Gulf during late spring or early fall.
Essentially, Gaia is an extensive low-pressure zone that channels moisture flowing from the Pacific Ocean, affecting Central America. Its core generates heavy rain, which could lead to flooding and landslides across over a dozen Central American countries.
Sometimes, organized low-pressure centers can form within this broader Gaia when conditions like warm water temperatures and favorable winds are present.
Traditionally, early and late in the hurricane season—sometimes even at various points throughout the usual six-month period—is when the most notable tropical disturbances emerge from Central America, potentially resulting in tropical depressions or storms in the Eastern Pacific, Campeche Bay, or the Western Caribbean.
That said, Norcross advised caution; the likelihood of any system tracking north or northeast remains low due to existing tropical depressions and lesser storm activity.
“The GFS model stands out for suggesting organized systems moving north into the Caribbean and developing tropical lows in the Pacific,” he noted. “We’ve seen this pattern before with the GFS, so it might be wise to disregard it unless other models support it.”
The tropical development of previous seasons
The official start of the Atlantic hurricane season is June 1, but tropical cyclones can form before then. The Western Caribbean, the Gulf, and the southeastern U.S. coasts are typical hotspots for tropical development in May.
Since 1851, at least 43 tropical storms have been noted in the Atlantic Basin from January 1 to May 31, averaging about one preseason tropical cyclone every four years.
Most recently, an unnamed subtropical storm in January 2023 kicked off that year’s hurricane season, which the National Hurricane Center re-evaluated in May 2023.
Before that, between 2015 and 2021, there was a streak where at least one tropical storm or hurricane had formed in the Atlantic by June 1. Only the 2022 and 2024 seasons have been free of preseason storms in the last decade.
Outlook for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season
The forecast for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season suggests a continuation of above-average activity, indicating an uptick in the likelihood of early tropical development, which may bolster the confidence of forecasters.
A report from April 3 by experts from Colorado State University predicts 17 named storms—nine of which are likely to become hurricanes. Among these, four could reach major hurricane status, with winds of at least 111 mph (Category 3 or higher).
These forecasts surpass the 30-year average, which indicates about 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes annually.
