Here's the situation: There's 1 minute and 48 seconds left in the fourth quarter. The Jacksonville Jaguars are down three points against a moribund Cleveland Browns offense, but with the ball on their own 2-yard line and still time to make up for it all. Trevor Lawrence, the Jaguars' franchise quarterback, takes the snap, but every route takes 30 yards downfield, and the offense is running out of time. He gets sacked by a safety, and the game is effectively out of reach.
The Jaguars are 0-2 and just came off an 18-13 loss to the Browns, who they blew out by 37 points the week before. The Doug Pederson era has started great, but it's time to start asking some serious questions, especially on offense. To be honest, I don't care who's calling the plays. In 2022, Pederson and offensive coordinator Press Taylor will share play-calling duties, with Taylor taking over full-time in 2023. Pederson has been very… quiet about who's calling the plays this year, but that doesn't matter. Press Taylor and Doug Pederson are both from the same coaching lineage and have the same coaching philosophy, so I'm going to group them together here.
The Jaguars have no offensive vision. None at all. Every competent offensive line has an identity or philosophy that they base their offense on. The Shanahan/McVay trees all use the day one install with the outside zone as the foundation for all their concepts. Decorate it however you like, but the foundation of the offense remains the same. Andy Reid and the Chiefs changed their offensive identity to a high YAC underpass team, which gives their offense an identity. What is the Jaguars offensive identity? What is the foundation of their offense? You can decorate your house with the most beautiful windows and the flashiest lights, but if the foundation is shaky, any adversity will bring the house down.
The Jaguars have good players, but they don't have a vision for their offense, so everything else suffers. What does Jacksonville want to do well on offense? Last week, the Jaguars' vision was to attack vertically off play-action at the center, which is something I thought they were going to do well after last year. But against the Browns? There were four play-action attempts at the center, one of which ended in a successful play. The Jaguars' offense yesterday had -0.03 EPA per play, but it could have been worse! This offense is closed off to itself, and the blame starts from the top. It's as if the Jaguars' offensive braintrust doesn't understand what their players are doing well. Rookie wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. was one of the most impressive downfield receiving targets early in the league, but now he only has two downfield targets a game? The Jaguars were without TE Evan Engram in Week 2, so naturally that meant sending passes to backup tight end Brenton Strange all game long. There is no rhyme or reason for this crime, which has a knock-on effect on the rest of the crimes.
Let's start with the quarterback. Lawrence is a very good quarterback, but the lack of a clear scheme on offense has undermined the value of the Jaguars' investment in him. On Sunday, I watched him miss passes he normally throws, run out of a pocket that was pretty clean, and generally look more frustrated and frustrated than I've ever seen him. Postgame comments from the Jaguars indicated this team was on the brink of collapse.
What's even sadder is that their offense is playing terrible football while their defense is really good. They should win games where they only gave up 18 points. The Cowboys gave up 17 to the Browns but scored 33. Through two games, they are 11th in allowed success rate, giving their offense a chance to succeed. You shouldn't put a 3-year proven offense up against a defense with a brand new scheme, but here we are.
The problem for the Jaguars is that the schedule isn't going to get any easier. Their next four games are against the Buffalo Bills, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts and Chicago Bears. This team needs to come up with a solution on offense, but they don't have the time against four good defenses. But they could have come up with a solution all offseason and the same Jaguars team still showed up anyway. That's the head coach's fault.
Doug Pederson's time is up and now is the time to put together a worthy offensive line or he will be out of a job at season's end.
