The Lions and Commanders are among most elite and aggressive on fourth downs

NFC Divisional Round begins with top seeds detroit lions undertake the commander of washingtonfinally reached this stage of the playoffs for the first time in almost 20 years.

Despite a wide point differential in favor of Detroit; This game had the highest over/under total of the weekend. And for good reason. Detroit's defense is getting healthier but is still severely undermanned, Washington's defense is improving but still isn't that good, and both offenses are among the NFL's best scorers.

One of the most fascinating subplots is the inevitable fourth-down decision-making by both teams. While Detroit's identity under coach Dan Campbell is etched in stone, Washington's team is just taking shape under a new coach and rookie sensation quarterback.

Dan Campbell isn't the only Dan who likes to play on fourth down.

It's well established that Dan Campbell (also known as “Dan Gamble”) often goes for it on fourth down. Since becoming the head coach of the Lions in 2021, Statistically, he has more fourth downs than anyone in the NFL.. If there was even the slightest chance that Campbell would stray from his philosophy after his high-profile failure in the NFC Championship loss; 49ers, The Lions responded by ranking fourth in total fourth-down attempts.. Campbell will go for it even when he doesn't need to make sure he makes the game-winning field goal at 0:00 instead of 0:40.

But the other Dan on the opposite sideline isn't far behind.

rbsdm.com

In the game we won last Sunday, tampa bay buccaneersCommanders coach Dan Quinn went for it on five fourth downs, all within field goal range of Zane Gonzalez. Both touchdown drives came from successful fourth downs, eschewing the traditional “scoring three points” mentality and resulting in seven points.

Quinn's fourth down history is interesting. In 2015, his first season as head coach of the Atlanta Falcons, he was heavily criticized for his terrible decision to kick a field goal from the 1-yard line late in the fourth quarter with the San Francisco 49ers trailing 17-13. It was done. The Falcons never got the ball back.

The following year, Quinn scored a goal in overtime against the San Diego Chargers with four outs and 1st base. Atlanta came back on downs and lost the game. It was a statistically defensible decision.one Quinn said was “just a hunch that I went with. It didn't work out.”

Quinn's fourth-down decisions weren't particularly consistent in Atlanta, but he was very aggressive throughout the season in which the Falcons ended up finishing as Super Bowl runners-up, and it was probably his most potent offense. It can't be a coincidence. After the Commanders' win over the Buccaneers, Quinn told reporters that his fourth-down strategy was “bold, but not foolhardy.”

Lions and Commanders have good 4th down offenses

Photo credit: Nick Antaya/Getty Images

Detroit converted 66.7 percent of its fourth-down attempts, which ranked seventh in the NFL and the highest percentage of the Campbell era. The Lions also tied with the Atlanta Falcons for the league-leading six touchdowns on fourth down. The commanders are amazing They hit 20-of-23 for 87 percent, marking the best fourth-down offense in a single season since Peyton Manning's Indianapolis Colts went 9-of-10 in 2000.

In the regular season, Jared Goff led the NFL with five 4-down touchdown passes, while Jaden Daniels led the NFL with the third-most first down rushing yards (eight) and second-most Josh Allen (8). He recorded nearly twice as many fourth-down rushing yards as Allen (85). (46).

Having a great offense doesn't necessarily mean strong fourth-down stats. The Baltimore Ravens surprisingly rank 20th in conversion rate, but their 15 attempts also rank near the bottom of the league.

NFL broadcasts often describe the “go” decision on fourth down as a gamble. Is it really a gamble to go for it on fourth down over and over again when you have a very good chance of converting?

Not by chance, The Lions rank last in punt percentage and the Commanders are tied for third from the bottom..

But the Lions have an elite fourth-down defense.

Although it's rarely discussed, Detroit's fourth-down defense was just as good as its offense. The Lions rank second in conversion rate allowed at 41.4%.This is a significant improvement from last season's lackluster 57.7%. With a game against the top-seeded Minnesota Vikings on the line, Detroit thwarted Sam Darnold on 0-for-3 on fourth down, including two stops in the red zone.

By contrast, Washington has allowed 16-of-24 conversions, which is among the worst in the NFL. Limiting the Lions' offense on early downs is already a tough job, but Quinn's defense will be truly tested if Quinn is the No. 4 shortstop and Campbell chooses to keep the offense on the field. It will be.

There's nothing to suggest either Campbell or Quinn will deviate from the philosophy that helped them achieve a combined 28 wins this season. Someone might lose, but you don't have to regret any fourth down mistakes that affect the outcome of the game. It's sure to be incredible entertainment from start to finish. Even if you don't agree with their fourth down philosophy, why wouldn't you want to see these two shocking offenses on the field as much as possible?