Hello, readers.
I’m an eternal optimist, really. I like to believe that things might improve, perhaps a bit naively, and that Futaka will reclaim the ship and steer it right again.
But have you seen what’s happening in Virginia? Brace yourselves.
large displacement
Virginia Democrats are gearing up for a statewide referendum that poses what might be one of the most confusing and potentially misleading questions in our democratic history.
“Should the Virginia Constitution be amended to allow the Legislature to temporarily adopt new House districts to promote fairness in the next election, while ensuring that Virginia’s standard redistricting process resumes for all future processes after the 2030 Census?”
It’s easy to see how casual voters might glance at this and think, “Restore fairness? Sure, I’ll vote yes.”
Let’s unpack that a bit.
Initially, the newly empowered Virginia Democratic Party would redraw the House map in what could be seen as a rather amusing way.
This is the old map.
And below is the newly redrawn version.
Previously enacted rules required Virginia’s districts to be drawn impartially. These allowed Republicans five seats, reflecting roughly 45% of the state, while Democrats secured six seats, roughly 55% of the state.
Notice how these new districts seem to gobble up rural areas and stretch into the more affluent regions just south of Washington, D.C., which are characterized by a more liberal, international demographic?
Currently, a Republican-leaning court has halted the referendum set for April 21st (I, for one, plan to cast my vote).
But here’s where it gets particularly complicated.
Restoring “fairness in future elections” essentially means that the new maps could disenfranchise Republican voters during midterms, ensuring that Virginia retains 10 out of the 11 seats allocated to it after the last census. Seems minor? It’s just one state, after all.
“If Democrats can sidestep gerrymandering in Virginia, they could nearly guarantee a win for the House,” noted political analyst and state resident Christian Haines.
At this moment, the midterm elections appear to be a close race, with Democrats holding a slight edge. However, these secure seats would almost certainly ensure Democratic control of the House.
What adds another layer of complexity is not just the questionable wording of the referendum, but the demographics involved.
Think about that sizeable demographic shift in Northern Virginia since 2015. That area has seen a significant increase—around 25% of residents in most districts are foreign-born. In some districts, that number climbs to 42%. It’s worth noting that nearly every neighborhood in Loudoun County has at least 30% foreign residents.
Before 2015, Republicans could win in some of these districts. That’s changed.
Back in 2019, the New York Times celebrated how a surge of immigrants transformed these formerly Republican areas into Democratic strongholds: “A considerable number of residents here come from elsewhere. When they vote, they frequently support Democrats.”
If you question whether the influx of diverse populations is a deliberate strategy, consider a 2021 New York Times article that candidly suggests immigrants were brought in to shift the state’s political landscape.
Yet, it’s also true that despite their increased numbers, these foreign residents can’t actually vote, can they?
However, if Democrats are looking for evidence of non-citizen voters, they reportedly found over 6,000 instances in Virginia.
That’s the reality folks.
The impact is significant. The sheer presence of these new residents amplifies Democratic voting power dramatically. At some level, one in three registered Democrats in those districts can have the influence of four House members.
So, even if foreign residents don’t cast votes, their existence could tilt the balance of power significantly in favor of Democrats.
If the updated maps get approved and take effect, this could mark the first time in recent political history where we can confidently state that the immigrant population contributed to an election outcome in the U.S.
What about a promising alternative?
