Hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon threaten to escalate into all-out war, further complicating problems for President Biden as optimism about a ceasefire in Gaza fades.
Clashes between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah militants have been ongoing since the day after Hamas attacked southern Israel last October, but the intensity of the conflict on Israel’s northern border appears to have reached a boiling point this week.
Hezbollah responded with a volley of rockets after Israel killed a senior Hezbollah commander, and there were reports of at least one new Israeli airstrike in southern Lebanon late on Thursday.
All-out war would likely lead to further bloodshed in a region already roiled by conflict in Gaza, where some 37,000 Palestinians have been killed in the eight months since the Oct. 7 attack that left more than 1,100 Israelis dead.
An all-out conflict between Israel and Hezbollah would represent a major strategic setback for the Biden administration, whose president and team argue that its reluctance to criticize the Israeli government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu helped avert a larger war.
The White House’s nightmare scenario is a major regional conflict that leads to direct combat between Israel and Iran.
Iran is a major sponsor of Hamas and Hezbollah. In April, Israel attacked Iranian facilities in Damascus, and Iran responded by firing around 300 drones and missiles at Israel. However, these projectiles were mostly repelled and did not cause any major fires.
But Biden’s attempts to rein in Netanyahu’s government have come at a heavy cost both at home and abroad.
The Israeli attack on Gaza has caused serious rifts within the Democratic Party and among center-left voters generally.
Nationally, polls consistently show far more Democrats sympathize with the Palestinians than with Israel, and Biden’s approval rating for the war is dismal, especially among young people.
In addition to the pro-Palestinian protests rocking college campuses, the Democratic National Convention in August could also be thrown into chaos, especially if a ceasefire in Gaza is not reached by then.
Netanyahu is due to address Congress on July 24, but progressives including Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), who has called Netanyahu a “war criminal,” have already vowed to boycott the speech.
The International Criminal Court prosecutor has sought arrest warrants for Netanyahu, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant and three Hamas leaders on suspicion of war crimes.
At the same time, Republicans see any suggestion of weakening U.S. support for Israel as tantamount to softening on terrorism.
The White House is watching with apparent concern the escalation of tensions on Israel’s northern border, with a senior administration official acknowledging Thursday that there has been “significant tension” along the Israel-Lebanon border over the past two weeks.
The official said the White House was “deeply concerned” by these developments, adding that “there have been consistent and urgent discussions between Israel and Lebanon at various times over the past eight months.”
The official said the administration’s immediate priority was “to prevent this from escalating into an all-out war that would have ramifications for other parts of the region.”
Some 150,000 people were forced to flee on both sides of the border with Lebanon as Israelis moved out of range of Hezbollah rockets and Lebanese fled Israeli attacks.
The conflict in the north has left around 400 people dead in Lebanon, including Hezbollah fighters, and around 25 dead in Israel, including military personnel.
Tensions intensified this week when an Israeli airstrike killed senior Hezbollah commander Taleb Abdullah. The Israeli military declared him the highest-ranking Hezbollah figure killed in the conflict, according to the Times of Israel.
Hezbollah responded by strafing Israel with rockets. Al Jazeera reported that Hezbollah fired more than 200 missiles and rockets at Israel on Wednesday alone.
Hezbollah is larger and better armed than Hamas, with an estimated stockpile of 200,000 missiles and rockets. Hamas’s Yahya Sinwar, the alleged mastermind behind the October 7 attacks, was reportedly disappointed that the attacks did not draw Hezbollah or Iran into a head-on conflict with Israel.
In a rapidly developing situation, Israeli news agency Haaretz reported early Thursday evening US time that Israeli warplanes had struck a building near the Lebanese city of Tyre.
The Israeli government’s rhetoric on the situation in Lebanon has become more combative.
“Anyone who thinks Hezbollah can do us harm and thinks we are sitting back is very mistaken,” Netanyahu said during a visit to a northern Israeli city last week, promising a “very strong” response to Hezbollah rocket attacks.
Israel’s far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir has strongly advocated “war”, saying “all Hezbollah bases must be destroyed”.
Benny Gantz, a centrist who left Netanyahu’s government on Sunday, told Israeli television on Thursday that “Lebanon should burn” if Hezbollah attacks did not stop.
All this is happening amid already fading hopes of a Gaza ceasefire.
Biden, who is attending the G7 meeting in Italy, was asked on Thursday whether he expected a ceasefire to happen anytime soon.
“No,” he answered.
The president now appears to have a second crisis to deal with.
This note is a reporting column by Niall Stanage.
