President Biden’s best chance of winning a second term may be to present himself as the “stop Trump” candidate, at least according to a new poll.
A CBS News/YouGov poll released Sunday found Among likely Biden voters, those motivated by opposition to Trump were twice as likely to vote as those motivated by favorability of the president, 54 percent to 27 percent.
Additionally, 19% of likely Biden voters said they were motivated to support the president simply because he is the Democratic nominee.
But Biden’s campaign is adamant that its campaign is not solely about condemning Trump, even as it argues that the 45th president poses a clear and present threat to American democracy.
Biden’s argument is that his campaign doesn’t have to be a “choice between attacking Trump and defending the president’s record” – his aides have said the campaign will do both.
While many polls have shown American voters dissatisfied with this year’s two major party candidates, Biden could still have success, at least in part, by turning the election into a referendum on Trump.
The same CBS poll found the election nearly even, with Biden leading by one point in seven key battleground states but Trump leading by one point nationally.
Those results are a slight improvement over recent polling averages, which showed Trump with a slight lead. The CBS poll also showed an increase in the number of Trump supporters who are more likely to vote for Biden because of antipathy toward Trump.
The share of Biden supporters who say anti-Trump sentiment is their primary motivator has risen seven points since March. The former president’s recent conviction on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records and the highly publicized trial may have influenced these fluctuations.
The Biden campaign has certainly put a lot of effort into warning voters about the threat they see from Trump if he wins a second term.
But advisers said the campaign also placed special emphasis on first-term accomplishments that made a tangible impact on everyday Americans, such as capping insulin prices at $35 a month for seniors and limiting expanded out-of-pocket costs for prescription drugs for seniors.
The Biden campaign is also touting infrastructure investment, support for minority-owned businesses and other measures.
At the same time, Biden’s team has recently denounced reports that Trump’s advertising statements were disrespectful to veterans – some of which he has denied – as well as bizarre comments he made at a rally in Nevada on Sunday.
In Las Vegas, Trump was seen gesturing to someone in the crowd and saying, “I don’t care about you guys. I just want your vote. I don’t care.” The video was repurposed as an advertisement posted on Biden’s X account. It garnered about 2.1 million views in the first six hours after it was posted online.
Biden has also repeatedly argued that Trump and “radical MAGA Republicans” pose a unique danger to the nation.
Some Democrats say there’s no tension between the two approaches at all. Democratic strategist Mark Longabaugh noted that any electoral coalition is likely to be “motivationally broad,” meaning it will include people who vote for candidates for a variety of reasons.
“If someone wants to vote for Biden because they can’t stand Trump, that’s totally fine,” Longabaugh added.
But he also acknowledged that Biden faces a host of challenges, from the economy to the conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine, that could dampen enthusiasm among at least some voters.
“There are a whole host of issues that make this election difficult for the Biden team: prices, inflation, the economy, housing issues, two very difficult conflicts overseas that are very difficult to deal with. These are much more important issues.”
Other Democrats are concerned that the White House has not touted Biden’s domestic record so far in office, a mistake they say has left the Biden team playing catch-up.
“The problem Biden has, and has had for quite some time, is that he hasn’t done much to accurately inform the American people about his record,” said Jerry Austin, a Democratic strategist who has worked on presidential campaigns since the 1980s.
“Now, with six months to go until the election, they’re trying to remind people what he did, but they’re not listening.”
But Austin acknowledged that Trump’s overall approach requires confronting him head-on.
“What they need to do is take Trump at his word,” Austin said. “No need to exaggerate or edit. He’s saying this is about revenge. I can’t remember anyone in my lifetime running for president out of revenge.”
On the other hand, Republicans argue that the anti-Trump campaign will not work as it did in 2020. The basic reason is that there are many voters who are dissatisfied with the incumbent president after Biden’s one term.
Memories of the tumultuous Trump presidency, particularly his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, are less salient this time around.
Asked about Biden’s campaign centered on Trump, Republican strategist Ron Bonjean dismissed the idea, saying, “It worked last time, but it may not work this time because people are not happy with Biden being president.”
An average of polls compiled by The Hill and Decision Desk showed Biden’s approval rating at 41.1 percent as of Monday night, while his disapproval rating was 55.1 percent.
For Democrats to have confidence in winning in November, these numbers need to change or Trump’s approval rating will need to fall.
This note is a reporting column by Niall Stanage.
