The presidential election campaign is heading into a hot summer.
The traditional lull that follows the end of the spring primaries and continues through the final stages of the fall campaign will not occur this year.
Instead, a series of extremely important events are occurring.
First, there’s the presidential debate scheduled for June 27 in Atlanta.
And on July 11, Judge Juan Marchan is scheduled to sentence former President Trump for his conviction in a New York hush-money lawsuit.
The Republican National Convention opens in Milwaukee just four days after the verdict, and Trump is scheduled to be elected as the official Republican candidate on July 18, the final day of the four-day convention.
Domestic politics and international developments will collide in the coming week, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu due to address parliament on July 24.
Netanyahu’s visit is a political headache for President Biden, whose party is deeply divided over Israel’s offensive against Gaza, which has left an estimated 37,000 people dead.
After all this, both candidates might appreciate some breathing space before the Democratic National Convention in Chicago from August 19-22.
Of the summer’s big events, the debate could have the clearest impact on the close election campaign.
The debate, organised at surprising short notice outside the auspices of the Commission on Presidential Debates, will air on CNN.
It’s highly unusual for a debate to take place so early in an election cycle: The first showdown between Biden and Trump in 2020 took place in late September.
From the Biden campaign’s perspective, the early debate is an opportunity to shine the spotlight on Trump and remind voters they will face a choice in November.
A strong showing for Biden would also ease questions about his age and cognitive ability — issues that polls show are a concern not only among Democrats but also sizable percentages of independents and Republicans.
But the opposite is also true: poor performance will only increase doubts.
The Trump campaign argues that the potential downsides for Biden far outweigh the upsides.
“The risks are much greater for Biden than for Trump,” said one pro-Trump political activist. “Once Biden has his senior moment, it’s over. Even if he survives and does reasonably well, it’s unclear how much that will benefit him, as it’s still June and there’s plenty of time for bad moments to become public knowledge.”
The operative argued that Biden’s debate performance would either “put a band-aid on the wound” or the wound would “become infected and that infection would spread throughout your body.”
Independent observers say the unusual nature of such early discussions makes it difficult to predict the outcome.
“On the one hand, early debates could change the narrative and bring the race into focus sooner than usual, but there’s still a long way to go before voting begins,” said Aaron Cole, debate director at the University of Michigan and editor of “Debating the Donald,” a book about Trump’s past debates.
Kahl also noted that the long gap between the two scheduled presidential debates could make it harder for either candidate to recover if they stumble on June 27. The second debate is scheduled for Sept. 10 and will air on ABC.
Meanwhile, President Trump’s ruling also needs to be taken into consideration.
The former president faces up to four years in prison on each count, but given that it is a first offense, no one expects him to receive the maximum sentence.
However, some form of house arrest is possible.
The Biden campaign on Monday released new television ads highlighting Trump’s recent felony convictions and civil judgment holding him liable for sexually abusing author E. Jean Carroll.
Trump supporters countered that there is no reason to believe the sentencing would have a significant negative effect on Trump’s support. Instead, they say, a harsh Marchan punishment could galvanize his MAGA base.
The Republican convention, meanwhile, is likely to underscore Trump’s ascendancy within a party that was explicitly skeptical of him when he was first nominated in 2016. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) famously declined to endorse Trump in a speech at the 2016 convention. Now Cruz is an ardent supporter.
If Prime Minister Netanyahu comes to Washington, democratic disunity is likely to become apparent.
After careful consideration, the top two Democrats in Congress, Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer of New York and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York, signed a letter instigated by Republicans inviting Netanyahu to join them.
In doing so, it sparked an outcry from progressives who pointed out that the chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court is seeking an arrest warrant for the Israeli prime minister on suspicion of war crimes.
Eva Borgwaldt, national spokesperson for IfNotNow, a Jewish-American group that fiercely criticizes Israeli policies toward Palestinians, said the congressional leaders who signed the invitation “will forever be remembered as the leaders who invited war criminal Benjamin Netanyahu to address Congress in the midst of Israel’s genocidal attack on Gaza.”
Borgward also argued that Democrats who attend Netanyahu’s speech will be “siding with the far right and opposing the things that the vast majority of voters support, including human rights, democracy and an immediate ceasefire.”
Prominent progressive figures, including Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-WA), chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, have already vowed to boycott the speech.
The political reality is that regardless of what Biden does with regard to the Netanyahu speech, he is going to anger some in his party.
But this is just one challenge in a summer filled with many.
Memo is a reporting column by Neil Stanage..
