famous history professor Alan Richtman when he made a ripple He predicted that Vice President Kamala Harris would become the 47th president. president of the united states.
His predictions were off the mark in the face of recent polls, the gambling market, President Biden's declining approval ratings and the obvious challenges of launching a new candidate with the election less than three months away. I couldn't believe that Lichtman was right, although he had been right many times before. In the last election, we predicted nine out of ten correctly.
Lichtman's prediction system, Developed in 1981 in collaboration with mathematician Vladimir Kaylis BorokThis involves 13 so-called keys, including “party duties,'' “incumbent status,'' and “avoiding social unrest.'' According to Lichtman, if eight or more keys exist, the incumbent party candidate wins the election.
Richtman believed Harris met the eight keys needed, but then Harris lost out. fashion that resonates. Following the election results, Lichtman described it as “immeasurable.” he came to the conclusion that disinformation was the cause of serious malfunctions in his prediction system..
I don't deny the huge impact of disinformation, but we know that a torrent of fake news similarly influenced the last two elections, and he predicted that correctly.
With all due respect to Lichtman, I think I found the missing key.
I believe the key missing from Lichtman is gender bias. All past elections that he predicted correctly were won by men. he predicted correctly Trump will beat Hillary Clinton. This was the first year Lichtman had bet on a woman. And he overlooked the profoundly discouraging but deeply relevant fact that many Americans simply aren't interested in voting for women.
Let's look at the facts.
playing cards doubled his vote share Comparison of black men and four years ago. Among Latino men, Harris lost about 10 points compared to Biden, dropping from 60% in 2020 to 50% this time. While there is no doubt that concerns about abortion, inflation, and immigration loomed large on voters' minds this season, this significant shift in the male vote also signaled a shift in Trump's relative attractiveness when running against women. Suggests.
To better understand this invisible but significant influence in world politics, consider the 2020 United Nations survey. Almost 90% of people around the world are prejudiced against women. Half of all Americans believe that men make better political leaders. According to the latest World Values Survey, 16% of American men agree “On the whole, men make better political leaders than women.'' While this is considerably lower than the United Nations' global bias scale, surveys like this one do not It is important to remember that only biases that you are willing to admit will be collected. Rates of implicit or unconscious bias are likely much higher and much harder to track.
In any case, 16 percent of the population would be more than enough to sway the battleground states that decide U.S. elections.
The fact that Ms. Harris is a woman, much less a black and biracial woman, resonated with thousands of voters, both male and female, who showed up in surprising numbers to support Mr. Trump in this election. It would be naive to think that wasn't taken into account — especially given that Trump has now won against two eminently qualified female candidates and lost only to Joe Biden. It is said that
The pattern here is not important. After all, there's a reason we have yet to swear in a female president in our nearly 250 years of history as Americans.
I believe that Lichtman's system was adapted to nearly 130 years of male-dominated politics, but was not adjusted to account for gender bias. He thought the old rules still applied. And the fact that he correctly predicted Trump's victory over Clinton likely suggested to Lichtman that his system would still work with the addition of women. But this time his predictions in favor of female candidates were completely different, as the 14th key of misogyny and sexism worked against him rather than for him.
If Lichtman had added a 14th key for “no female candidates” and required a total of nine positive keys for a projected victory, as happened, Harris would have missed her goal. There probably wasn't. the fact that women must meet one or more conditions apart from men; Countless women won't be surprised They have long experienced that they need to work harder for the same promotion as their male colleagues.
There are likely countless theories as to which of the many social, political, and economic forces led people to vote overwhelmingly for Trump. Many of these are equally useful and relevant, and I do not deny the sheer complexity of this election or any other. But at the end of the day, we have to face the fact that a sitting vice president, a former attorney general, a prosecutor, and a truly decent woman lost the presidential election. Male felon convicted on two impeachments who was found be responsible for sexual assault And who tried? openly subvert and deny the results About the last election.
Trump's age, apparent moral flaws, and criminal rap sheet; fascist intentions. Many Americans simply don't like Trump, but still think he's more likable than voting for a woman. Alan Lichtman's system was geared towards elections between two opposing figures. However, this election was different. You may not want to admit it, but it's time to add a 14th key.
Greg Wolf is a freelance writer of essays, poetry, and fiction.
