The NBA is shifting away from pick-and-rolls, but offensive efficiency is higher than ever

For thousands of years, the combination of horse and bow meant military superiority around the world. The mighty Romans lost battles to much smaller opponents like the Parthians because they had cavalry on one side and no archers on the other. And such technology persisted. The high water mark occurred more than 1,000 years after him, when the Mongols conquered much of Eurasia with arching horses. It is unclear when the Mongols were defeating armies in China, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe, but horse archers were never again so effective.

A high water mark for the NBA's great technological advancements could also be on the horizon. For decades, the league has been defined by pick-and-rolls. It was used by champions to defeat overwhelming favorites, as Parthia did against Rome. MVP was used to expand the empire into all time zones and stadiums offered by the NBA.

But now we may be seeing a decline in the pick-and-roll. Indeed, the play is far from over. But things have changed.

November 7, 2023 Los Angeles Lakers He played against Zion Williamson and the New Orleans Pelicans in the In-Season Tournament (IST). A few nights earlier, the Pelicans held Sacramento's 56 picks to just 33 points, defeating the mighty Sacramento Kings in IST's first knockout game, according to Second Spectrum. So what did Los Angeles do? They avoided the pick-and-roll almost completely and conceded just 13 points. This was the team that allowed the second fewest points per game in the Second Spectrum database through the 2013-14 season.

The Lakers game may have constituted an extreme moment, but it fits into a long-term trend of teams having fewer picks.

At the same time, the offense has never been better. League average this season Just six seasons ago, they would have had the third-best offensive rating. Next up are only the defending champion Golden State Warriors and James Harden's Houston Rockets..

Running high picks with shooters on both corners creates options for guards who can shoot, drive, and pass to Roller.Players like Donovan Mitchell, Trae Young, and Luka Doncic Three or four years ago, he built an incredible offense while running almost 100 pick-and-rolls per game.. It's repetitive and boring, and Quin Snyder told me in 2021 that players often complain about the amount of time they spend in their corners.

But it was the most important tool for many offenses that year. It may have been the high water mark of homogeneity. Sure, there are certainly still teams that play dozens of games with shooters at both corners running spread pick-and-rolls, but they're no longer in the class of the NBA. Now it's the Chicago Bulls. houston rocketsand portland trail blazers Those who carry the torch. They are not as effective as they used to be. utah jazz In 2021.

What has changed?

The NBA has always been defined by technological advancements, including rule changes, skill growth, and tactical choices. Every step in one direction causes a similar and opposite reaction in the other direction. I talked to several coaches around the league and they all pointed to switching as one big stepping stone between high pick-and-rolls and today's elbow movements.

The league has been switching for a long time, but no team has done it more than the Houston Rockets. golden state warriors During the playoffs in the late 2010s. They switched the action as a means of controlling the tempo. Their success spilled over to other teams. toronto raptorsMiami Heat, boston celtics, and those who collected giant wings and switchable bigs. Switching played a major role in Deciding on the 2022 Playoffs. Over time, the trend has become clearer. We've seen a significant increase in switching rates by defenders every year since Second Spectrum's database began in 2013.

Switching negates many of the superpowers of high pick-and-rolls. This leads to isolation from small spaces and large posts. Either way, when he flips the switch, play is forced into a static approach with less movement and passing.

But if you ask any coach in the league, they'll tell you the boom in offense is being driven by a faster pace. I switched and my pace slowed down. So what did the team do to speed it up?

Moved to elbow action. From the elbow, teams can perform handoffs, picks, post-ups, and isolations. The ball handler can see defenders coming from all angles while waiting for the off-ball action to unfold, so he probably won't be forced into a turnover. Elbow operators like Nikola Jokic are too talented to have that many options; do not have Score.when Many actions are chained together — For example, a cross screen to the elbow for a post entry, a double stagger combination on the weak side, and then that cutter takes a handoff from the post and attacks the open side of the floor — Defenses do a lot more than that. I can't do anything. Hope. (Alternatively, you can assist from long range and allow open three-point shots.)

This may not sound particularly new, but it isn't. Last time there was an aggressive boom The triangle offense was all the rage in the NBA in the mid-1990s. And the modern elbow offense borrows heavily from the old triangle principle, simply moving it away from the net. placed at intervals, if you don't mind. But the old principles of activity and creativity combined with the newfound space of the three-point era are basketball's equivalent of the Silk Road.I mean, open up the world, I mean, just watch the courts be conquered.

The Kings set historic offensive records last year. Highest attack power rating in history, by also performing the fourth-most handoffs per 100 possessions (at the time) in Second Spectrum's database. This year, the Kings are setting records for handoff frequency. Additionally, six teams are striving to break offensive records this year, and all teams currently have higher offensive ratings than last year's Kings. The offensive ceiling may not be in sight yet.

The two-tier situation between offense and defense continues in the NBA, but it's clear who's next. The defense responded to spaced picks with switches, and the offense responded to switches with movement and tempo. It's similar to the old Looney Tunes cartoon where the two characters pull out increasingly larger weapons, but the NBA offense just pulls out space lasers. It's unclear whether defensemen have comparable tools in their golf bags. It is interesting to note that in Second Spectrum's database, for the first time this season, switching frequency has decreased compared to last year. In other words, the defense is strengthening something.

It's not that pick-and-rolls are gone (they still make up a large portion of all NBA action). only Weapons needed to carry out appropriate attacks. In today's NBA, you can't get a good score by performing the same actions over and over again. Although it doesn't show up in the numbers, his defensive ability has improved. Picks are no longer uniform. Now, they're just one of many tools he has to use even in mid-level offenses.

A similar thing happened to the shooter. Suddenly cavalry archers were no longer the best and most advanced soldiers available to humanity. But they remained effective for a long time afterwards. Gunpowder replaced bows and arrows, but the Comanche built considerable structures. their own empire Riding a horse and using a gun.

Archers dominated the military world for over 1,000 years. Pick-and-rolls don't get much daylight, but things happen faster in sports than in human history. And the implicit variable to all of this is rule change. As players become better pull-up shooters and coaches become more focused on pace, a final variable in the form of rule changes could come into play. The league may be tired of seeing teams score 150 points. There are many potential ways for the league to slow down the offense, but Secaucus cannot bail out the offense even if the league intervenes. That could bring the pick-and-roll back into parity or eliminate it entirely. who knows? But for now, the balance of power in the NBA is firmly on the offensive side of the ball, and that could be even more true in the coming seasons.

Things change so quickly in the NBA that trends from four years ago are completely different now. After all, that's what health is all about. Constant reinvention and revolution create interesting products. Even if they have to get used to six teams jockeying for the title of “Greatest Offense of All Time” every year. At least you're not watching the same play 100 times a game.