Mexican drug cartels are incredibly persistent and powerful. Rather than crumbling under pressure, they adapt, sometimes in ways that are, well, surprising.
This past year has been marked by a violent turf war, new tariffs aimed at the global drug trade, and ongoing turmoil at the border. One result of all this? Two of the most notorious cartels, the Sinaloa and Jalisco groups, have formed an unprecedented alliance, albeit reluctantly.
This shift in organized crime signals that the United States may need to rethink its strategy. This so-called “supercartel” does more than just deal in drugs or human trafficking; it operates almost like a state itself.
In fact, the cartels are already responsible for over 30,000 deaths annually. They’re running fentanyl supply chains, monitoring through digital surveillance, and maintaining a loyal, militarized workforce in more than 100 countries. Their expanded capabilities lead to increased violence, human trafficking, and greater political influence.
However, U.S. policy still tends to view these cartels as mere street gangs.
Recent announcements from President Trump about designating them as terrorist organizations have made headlines, but it’s evident that merely labeling them doesn’t address the underlying issues. It’s crucial that we take the cartels and their dangerous influence seriously. We’re not looking at a neatly wrapped story here; it’s much more complex.
Invasions or military actions could lead to chaos, which tends to benefit these cartels. There was a notable example back in 2019 when the cartel captured El Chapo’s son. They unleashed a violent response that left a city paralyzed within hours.
Moreover, the lengthy “war on drugs” has largely been ineffective, leading to a staggering increase in cartel activities. The rates of forced disappearances spiked dramatically in just a few years, leaving communities caught in a cycle of silence and violence.
If we’re calling these cartels terrorists, our reaction must be more comprehensive, similar to how we addressed ISIS—a non-state threat with a global agenda.
Defeating ISIS took more than just military strikes; it required a coalition strategy that disrupted finances, partnered with local ground forces, and stabilized communities impacted by violence.
This is particularly relevant today because cartels are now significant employers in Mexico and are actively recruiting children and teens to sustain their operations. Some estimates suggest upwards of 460,000 young Mexicans may be participating in organized crime.
For some, it’s about the allure of money and security, while for many, it’s simply a matter of survival in a landscape devoid of educational and job opportunities.
This situation presents a humanitarian and moral crisis and mirrors the dynamics that allow extremist groups to flourish.
The fight against ISIS also relied heavily on grassroots efforts that countered its ideology. In the U.S., communities took proactive measures to diminish ISIS’s influence and engaged youth at risk through various initiatives.
For instance, in Dallas, local Muslim leaders organized workshops to combat extremist narratives, promoting community involvement as a solution to alienation.
Globally, organizations like the Islamic World League have publicly denounced groups like ISIS, denying their claims to religious legitimacy and fostering international cooperation against radicalization.
We could apply similar strategies to combat today’s cartels. Research suggests that undermining their recruitment efforts can be incredibly effective. This involves investing in education, empowering local leaders, and providing youth with viable alternatives to a life of crime.
It’s also essential to view cartels as geopolitical players, supporting local security forces and disrupting their financial networks with stricter enforcement against money laundering.
Investment in local governance in areas controlled by cartels is also vital. This means extending efforts beyond simply fighting drug trade, focusing on broader transnational collaboration.
While the Trump administration aims to tackle the cartel issue, treating Mexico as a failed state won’t yield positive results.
There’s actually a moment of potential here, as evidence of cooperation emerges, such as Mexico sending aid to Texas for flood recovery. That same spirit of collaboration could foster new alliances built on shared interests.
It seems we are entering a new Cold War, not between nations, but between networks. The cartels are adapting, migrating from traditional drug routes into digital territories.
Dealing with these supercartels will require a comprehensive approach that prioritizes shared intelligence, economic development, and community resilience. Simply building walls won’t be enough.
