Shifting Threat Landscape Post-9/11

The September 11 attacks drastically altered the landscape of U.S. national security. For the last quarter-century, the country has poured immense resources into enhancing aviation security, intelligence gathering, and counterterrorism efforts, all in hopes that such an event won’t repeat. Yet, the reality is that threats are constantly evolving.

We don’t have control over how adversaries might strike. Historical evidence indicates they will exploit the weaknesses we’ve failed to notice. While we have strengthened our security and response protocols, it’s likely that the next significant conflict will reach our shores through unconventional attacks.

Unexpected Vulnerabilities

As we become increasingly reliant on digital connectivity, conflicts may no longer be confined to distant battlefields. Instead, the goal may shift toward wreaking havoc, instilling panic, and causing potential casualties domestically.

The U.S. needs to be ready for these evolving threats. Rather than targeting buildings or vital infrastructure, future attacks may aim to disrupt the essential systems that sustain the nation. There’s no need for complete destruction; a single act could significantly undermine our economic, emergency response, transportation, and agricultural frameworks.

Military Readiness and Positioning Systems

Our vulnerabilities are glaring, as much of modern life hinges on a crucial element: positional awareness. This is so fundamental to our daily routines that we often overlook it. It informs how trucks transport goods, how food is grown and harvested, how utilities restore power in emergencies, and how military operations are conducted. Society doesn’t just function via roads, communication networks, and banking; it fundamentally depends on knowing where things are located.

While GPS is generally reliable, which has led us to build systems around the assumption of its constant availability, that belief may soon falter.

Recent military encounters show that disruptions to GPS, including interference and spoofing, are no longer isolated incidents but rather persistent elements of modern warfare. This risk has prompted the Department of War to prioritize the ability to operate without traditional positioning systems in contested environments. Reports indicate that China is actively working on counterspace technologies that can interfere with U.S. operations in space—an alarming trend.

Government notices reflect growing concerns about capabilities for jamming and disrupting satellite systems, which continue to evolve. For instance, researchers recently traced disturbances in satellite signals across Europe back to Russian satellites, underscoring the challenges we face.

The Risk of Domestic Disruption

In practical terms, any interference from adversaries increases the chances of disrupting positioning systems during military operations and everyday activities. It’s not GPS that poses the threat; rather, it’s the excessive reliance on an external system for functionality, be it on battlefields or local roadways.

The tactics used in conflict zones are likely to transition to domestic scenarios, and, unfortunately, we are not adequately prepared for that possibility.

During the COVID pandemic, we witnessed just a glimpse of how quickly public anxiety over essential goods could impact behavior and highlight the fragility of supply chains. A large-scale disruption in positioning systems may not simply grind everything to a halt, but it would definitely create uncertainty in transportation, emergency response, and other vital sectors. This would likely occur precisely when stability is most crucial. Such economic disruptions, while not outright terrorism, could have severe implications for military operations and the broader economy.

A study commissioned by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) estimated that a nationwide GPS outage could cost the U.S. economy around $1 billion every day. This assessment covers direct economic impacts, but the indirect effects on emergency services and public confidence are far more challenging to pin down.

Simultaneously, the U.S. is channeling billions into developing autonomous systems, AI-driven logistics, and other next-gen military technologies. Much of the discussion centers on their future capabilities, yet it’s vital to consider what these systems need to function properly. Whether a soldier is controlling a vehicle or it’s operating autonomously, understanding its location is essential for mission accomplishment.

The Need for Preparedness

The U.S. should persist in investing in technologies that shape future warfare, but not at the cost of addressing today’s needs. More than 25 years after 9/11, the lesson isn’t just about preparing for another attack; it’s also about anticipating the new forms these assaults may take. The nature of threats may differ, but the ultimate objectives remain unchanged. Prioritizing the protection of military forces, emergency services, and crucial infrastructure is essential, and it should not be an afterthought.

Advancements in technology and military readiness do not have to be at odds. Effective innovation inherently reinforces preparedness.

As we work towards developing the next generation of military capabilities, we cannot ignore the foundational assumptions that enable them. Our adversaries have a say in these matters. Twenty-five years after 9/11, it’s imperative to challenge the assumptions that might define the next wave of threats.