The NFL is cyclical, that’s just the nature of the beast. Everyone tries to solve the league’s problems, but when a team finds a new winning formula, a new mindset and a new approach change. For more than 10 years, the policy of “pass first, there’s no problem in rushing” has continued, but now it feels like the pendulum has swung the other way.
Yes, big boy football might really be back.
A flurry of free agent announcements over the weekend and into Monday revealed that teams around the league are looking to make it to the big leagues in 2024. Kirk Cousins and Brian Burns grabbed all the headlines, but there was a deep undercurrent to the league’s teams. He’s trying to solidify the inside offensive line, not the tackles. Strengthen the center with a big defensive tackle and find a top running back to bring it all together.
As of Tuesday afternoon, the number of indoor-to-outdoor autograph sessions has decreased significantly.
- 3 of 42 available offensive tackles signed (7% of market)
- 7 of 56 available offensive guards signed (12.5% of market)
- 6 of 32 centers available signed (19% of market)
- EDGE rushers signed so far have an AAV of $8.4 million
- Signed defensive tackle has an AAV of $14.7 million.
What we’re seeing is that teams are not only rushing to sign interior linemen on both sides of the ball, but they’re also paying more money to make these deals happen. Thing. As he looks around the league, he sees two big case studies of teams doing everything in their power to make the big boys’ dreams a reality.
Case A: Carolina Panthers
We start with the worst team in the league, but that’s because they aim to make the most fundamental change in football ideology. Dave Canales arrives in Carolina as new head coach for second year He made it clear he wanted the Panthers to return to physical football with the run.and uses it to make life easier for Bryce Young in his second season.
“We’ve got to be able to run the ball where we want it to go. That’s ultimately No. 1, and that’s what we need to do to win the NFC South and win at the top of the playoffs.” When you look at a team that goes far, it’s a team that can run. Because the pass rush gets better every time you get to the playoffs. So, that’s what I’m going to be stubborn about. It’s something I will work towards to the best of my ability. ”
The Panthers delivered on their word on Monday, spending a total of $153 million on guards (Robert Hunt and Damian Lewis) to fix their biggest problems on the offensive line. This all came at the cost of letting go of their best pass rusher in Brian Burns, who was traded to the Giants.
Average weight of the new Panthers line: 327 lbs. Just a big old wall of meat.
Case B: Commander in Washington
The big question swirling in Washington is what the team will do with quarterback in the 2024 NFL Draft, but free agency is all about solidifying the team’s interior and establishing itself as a solid football team.
On Monday, the team agreed to terms with center fielder Tyler Biadasz ($30), OG Nick Allegretti ($16 million) and running back Austin Ekeler ($8.3 million). It quickly asserts that the team is a strong interior football team, branching out from the run to the pass as well.
Remember: They learned from doing things wrong in 2023. The team had him 1st in the NFL in passing attempts, but he was 23rd in rushing attempts. As a result, they had an offensive line that ranked 24th overall, and it all fell apart.
These bad teams are chasing the Chiefs
If you’ve been following the league closely, you’ve probably seen the transition to big bog football already starting. Before last season, our JP Acosta and Mark Schofield broke down the changes in the NFL and outlined how the Chiefs and their back-to-back Super Bowl wins helped change this mindset.
A year ago, Patrick Mahomes led the NFL in offensive formations that utilized one running back, one wide receiver, and three tight ends out of 13, according to graph data from Sports Info Solutions. He led the NFL in pass attempts, going 13-of-46 last season.
How did he do in those plays? He completed 33 passes for 545 yards and seven touchdowns with no interceptions. Mahomes had a total Expected Points Added (EPA) of 24.09 on those attempts, which was the best for a QB last year.
A misconception about Kansas City is that they are a pass-only, air-it-out style team. In reality, they run most of their attacks from larger talent packages. While much of the league is moving to an 11-man lineup (mimicking the Rams’ Super Bowl team), the Chiefs went in a different direction by increasing their size.
The three most important guys on the offensive line: Creed Humphrey, Joe Thuney, and Trae – center and two guards. The reason for this investment in the offensive line is that Patrick Mahomes, like most quarterbacks in the NFL today, struggles with pressure to the face rather than from the edge.
EDGE rushers still get the majority of the sacks, but the interior pressure is what disrupts the play. This is why Mahomes has struggled so much in away games. buccaneers In the last Super Bowl loss, it was the inside pass rush. This also gives Chiefs an opportunity to overhaul their midfield, with all three players on the interior no longer with the team.
And on the other side of the ball, they understand the importance of interior pressure, which is why they gave Chris Jones the huge extension he deserves. Elite, disruptive inside pass rushers are not easy to find. And once you get them, you keep them.
Cheer up, because old school is new again.
The pass-first era isn’t over, but more teams will continue to pivot to an inside-out approach instead of the other way around. If Sean McVay changed the way he thought about offense a few years ago, now Kyle Shanahan and the Chiefs are going back to the old school and implementing it.
We’re learning that pass-heavy spreads are great for winning in the regular season, but struggle in the playoffs. The challenge is to continue to combine offensive concepts to counter what the defense is throwing at us.
Meat is back on the menu.
