The reason the NFL moved the extra point from the 2-yard line to the 15-yard line in 2015 was basically because kicking was too boring. NFL kickers were hitting 99.3% of their extra point attempts in 2014, the season before the rule change, and the league felt that moving the kick back would make it more difficult and encourage teams to go for the two points.
For the most part, it worked. Kickers as a whole had never been more than 95% successful on extra-point attempts from 15 yards out before last season, but last season the league rate was 95.9%. Spurred by rule changes and the rise of analytics, NFL teams have begun to attempt 2-point attempts more frequently. Starting in 2021-23, 56% of teams will attempt 2-point attempts when trailing by five points, up from just 25% in 2010-13.
But the kicks are starting to get boring again.
In 2020, the league hit just 93% of its extra-point attempts, its lowest since 1979, but accuracy has improved every season since. No kicker missed an extra-point attempt in Week 1 this season. Just four kickers missed an extra-point attempt. Chargers Kicker Cameron Dicker, Saints kicker Blake Grupe, Bengals kicker Evan McPherson and Giants kicker Punter Jamie Gillan – Missed the extra point attempt in Week 2. (Gillan was filling in for injured kicker Graham Gano. The Giants opted to go for two points on the game's remaining two touchdown attempts after Gillan's miss.)
But it's not just the extra points that kickers are getting better at: almost all attempts from 50 yards or further are also up. double Compared to two weeks ago, the NFL's field goal success rate is twice as high as it was a season ago. Last season, teams attempted 230 field goals from 50 yards or more, or about 0.4 attempts per game. They made 158 of those, or 68.7 percent. Two weeks ago, the NFL's field goal success rate was 35 of 39, or about 0.4 attempts per game. 89.7% 0.6 attempts per game. Kickers have completed 50-yard kicks once every two games in 2024, compared with once every three games last season. Five 2014.
The increase in attempts is pretty explainable. The NFL changed kickoff rules this offseason to advance touchbacks to the 30-yard line and create a landing zone between the 20-yard line and the goal line to encourage more returns. But kickers still line up at the 35-yard line, so many teams opt to simply kick the ball into the end zone and let the opponent pick it up at the 30-yard line. In 2023, the average NFL kicker can kick from a maximum of 55.8 yards, so offenses only need to advance the ball about 20 yards to get into field goal range.
In other words, getting two first downs essentially guarantees three points.
Compare that to 2014, before the extra point was moved back. A touchback kickoff would put the offense at the 20-yard line. NFL kickers averaged 53.3 yards from field goal attempts over the course of the season, just two yards shorter than last year's average, but they were only successful 61% of kicks over 50 yards. Teams were given the extra 15 people Ten years ago it took several yards to get within range.
This revolution is happening on many fronts, perhaps most notable with Cowboys kicker Brandon Aubrey. As a 2023 freshman, Aubrey was a first-team All-Pro whose accuracy from long distance was unlike anything the league had ever seen. Aubrey has still never missed a kick of more than 50 yards, and he added a 52-yarder against the Saints on Sunday, making him 13-of-13 in his 19-game career. Aubrey also tied an NFL record with a 66-yard kick in Week 1 that was voided due to a delay of game, though he also had a 66-yarder during the preseason. The Cowboys briefly considered having Aubrey attempt a daring 71-yard kick after a delay of game last week, but decided against it despite his long-range shot.
Aubrey isn't the only one leading this effort. Browns Kicker Dustin Hopkins has made 10 attempts of 50 yards or more and hasn't missed since being traded to Cleveland before the 2023 season. Cardinals kicker Matt Prater, a 39-year-old in his 17th NFL season, made a league-leading 62-yarder in 2023 and 9 of 12 long-range attempts last season, including a casual-looking 57-yarder on Sunday against the Rams.
Texans Kicker Ka'imi Fairburn is a great example of where this phenomenon appears to transcend a kicker's existing long-range ability. From 2017-2021, Fairburn made 18 of 28 attempts from 50+ yards for a success rate of 64.3%. Since 2022, Fairburn has missed no shots from long range. one timeHe made 17 of 18 shots, including three field goals. Sunday Night Football From distances of 56 yards, 59 yards, and 53 yards.
That means kickers are better than ever, which coincides with NFL rule changes that have made it easier than ever to get into field goal range. Also This coincides with the prevalence of two-high defenses, which have led to a drop in passing output across the league over the past two weeks, creating more and more field goal opportunities, making kicking more important than ever.
And the contracts of NFL kickers, already some of the shortest in professional sports, just got shorter. Washington released Cade York, who missed field goals of 47 and 56 yards in the season opener after the Commanders acquired him in a trade before the season. He was replaced by veteran Austin Seibert, who made 7 of 7 kicks in Week 2 to lead Washington to a 21-18 win over the Giants.
Bills fans are concerned about Tyler Bass' job security after a somewhat shaky (by modern standards) training camp and preseason in which he shot 82.8% from the field and 4-of-6 from long range last season. This overall success rate is roughly the same as Graham Gano and Nick Folk's success rates in 2014, when they were a combined 4-of-9 from 50+ yards that season, and both kickers are still in the NFL today.
The only kicker whose job is not affected by this is Justin Tucker, who is widely considered the best kicker in the league over the past five years. Tucker has made 2 of 8 of his recent attempts from 50 yards or more, matching his 2014 and 2015 seasons when he made 8 of 19 total three-point attempts. But with Aubrey and Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker proving to be more consistent and reliable kickers from anywhere on the field, the discussion about dethroning Tucker has already begun.
This trend is also affecting the evaluation of college kickers. Wake Forest Kicker Nick Siva is the NCAA's all-time leading kicker, making 89.9% of his field goal attempts with a career 49-yarder average for the Demon Deacons from 2018-2021. In 2014, Siva's legs weren't as strong yet, and at least one NFL team may have sacrificed accuracy for a shorter option. In 2022, Siva's accuracy is worthless without a launcher on his right foot. He's played in just one NFL game. Steelers He completed kicks of 28 and 38 yards in 2022 but hasn't been seen in the NFL since.
At the other end of the spectrum is former Missouri State kicker Harrison Mevis, who signed with the Panthers after this year's NFL Draft, after making 13 of 18 attempts from 50+ yards in his career, including a legendary 61-yarder against a No. 15 ranked team. Kansas It cemented his image in the college football world. Mevis was an 83.5% kicker in college, which is pretty good. It seemed As if he had an NFL future.
During the Panthers' training camp, Mevis made 22 of 28 kicks, including two misses during an Aug. 11 practice. Just hours later, he was replaced by current kicker Eddy Pineiro, who has made 10 of 12 kicks over 50 in his career and made all but two of his 25 kicks in training camp. Despite two teams making kicker changes since the preseason (Green Bay and Washington) and the Giants searching for a short-term replacement for Cano, Mevis has not played in the NFL since then.
To be an NFL kicker in 2024, you need both distance and accuracy. Season averages of high-50s and mid-80s accuracy are no longer enough. Every team needs a Brandon Aubrey, Kahmi Fairbairn or Evan McPherson, who signed a three-year contract this offseason. There are more and more of those kickers. Rams rookie Joshua Carty made 61-yard field goals at Stanford and made 85% of his field goals. Jaguars rookie Cam Little didn't miss a single extra point attempt last season on his way to becoming the most accurate kicker in Razorbacks history with a 56-yard kick at Arkansas.
Unless the NFL gets tired of it and makes rule changes that make kicking harder again, this will be the league's new normal.
