The NFL is less than a week away from restarting. Rookies across the league will be gathering for training camps, followed shortly by the veterans, giving us our first real look at the adjustments teams made during the offseason. As we eagerly await the kickoff of fall, the topic of separating championship contenders from non-contenders has been a hot topic for the last six months. So now is the perfect time to debate who is overrated and who is underrated as football resumes.
The best barometer of success is to look at DraftKings’ NFL futures betting lines. This is because people think The league will be top of the table this season, but there is a lot of speculation surrounding that figure.
Chicago Bears — Overrated
-120 to make the playoffs, +265 to win the NFC North
There is much to be optimistic about for the future. Chicago BearsBut the idea that they’re going to be championship contenders overnight is a bit ridiculous. As it stands, the Bears are Packers In the division championship stakes, they are the favorites to make the playoffs.
To achieve this, they’ll need to hope that Caleb Williams is dramatically better than Justin Fields from the get-go. This skewed perception of rookie quarterback potential has been tilted by the success of C.J. Stroud in 2023, but history teaches us that these things usually take time to mesh. There’s no question that the Bears are a better team than they were a year ago, but to what end?
Last year they needed a 9-8 record to get the wild card. On paper, that doesn’t seem like much of a jump from a 7-10 record, but the reality is that the NFC North has a much tougher non-conference schedule against the NFC West and AFC South this season, limiting their chances of winning. Chicago also got lucky after the bye week, running into established playoff teams that play timid football, as well as the Cardinals and Falcons.
Don’t get me wrong, I think the Bears’ future is incredibly bright, but when it comes to 2024, they’re being overvalued by the betting community.
Pittsburgh Steelers — Underrated
+185 to make the playoffs, +800 to win the AFC North
It’s really strange that people don’t think about it much. Steelers For now. Sure, they play in one of the toughest divisions in the NFL, and rumors of Russell Wilson competing for a championship may be wishful thinking, but it’s just ridiculous that they’re this far removed from being competitive.
This is a team that won 10 games last season behind awful quarterback play from Kenny Pickett, Mitchell Trubisky and Mason Rudolph, and whether Wilson or Justin Fields is named the starting quarterback, we’ll see a major upgrade under center.
The loss of Diontaie Johnson (traded to the Panthers) will certainly hurt the passing game, but the Steelers offense is tailor-made to succeed under head coach Arthur Smith, whose run-heavy approach is tailored to work well with Najee Harris and Pittsburgh’s offensive line, and defensively this team is good enough to stop any team in the NFL on any given day.
I’m not saying the Steelers are a lock to win the AFC North, but it’s ridiculous how overlooked they are at this point.
New York Jets – Overrated
-160 to make the playoffs, +190 to win the AFC East
We really think highly of Aaron Rodgers, don’t we? The Jets are currently the favorites to make the playoffs, are just behind the Bills in the AFC West, and are banking on being a better team than the Bills. Dolphin 2024.
I actually like the Jets. If everything goes well, I think they can compete for the Super Bowl. It’s still ridiculous to be just behind the Bills and ahead of the Dolphins. Essentially, the fate of the entire team rests on Rodgers’ aging arm. We don’t know how it will play out after a year of not being able to play football due to injury, plus all the off-field stuff he’s been putting together over the last year.
The Jets regressed defensively in 2023, dropping from No. 1 in the NFL in passing touchdowns allowed to No. 4. As a result, their points allowed dropped from 18.6 (4th in the NFL) to 20.9 (12th in the NFL) in 2022. more The pressure is on Rodgers to step up offensively, and there’s less reason to trust New York now than there was a year ago.
There’s a fine line between believing the Jets are good and believing they can be one of the best teams in the NFL. We’ve crossed that line.
Jacksonville Jaguars — Underrated
+130 to make the playoffs, +275 to win the AFC South
Everyone is trapped Texans The Jaguars are underrated going into the NFL season because of all the hype. As it stands, Houston is the overwhelming favorite to win the AFC South, and that’s understandable, but there shouldn’t be a huge gap between Houston and Jacksonville.
It’s easy to forget that this team went 8-3 last season and was 1-1 against the Texans before falling apart. Their biggest issue in the second half of the season was defense, which new coordinator Ryan Nielsen should be able to improve. That’s all you need to be excited about for the Jaguars this season, but it’s not all.
The additions of Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas Jr. more than make up for the loss of Calvin Ridley in free agency, and it spreads out the team’s offensive weapons, something Trevor Lawrence excels at: his ability to read the entire field and find the open man instead of forcing the ball to the bell cow.
Houston should be the favorite to win the AFC South after a phenomenal season in 2023, but looking at the numbers, it seems like people are underestimating the Jaguars’ chances this season.
Dallas Cowboys — Overrated
-260 to make the playoffs, +150 to win the NFC East
Water gets wet, but hope springs eternal for fans Dallas CowboysWe’re approaching another season where big money is being bet on the Cowboys to do well. The problem is, there’s little reason to believe.
Dallas was hamstrung by the salary cap in free agency and couldn’t make any notable additions to its roster, and poor cap management also cost the team Dorance Armstrong, Tyler Biadasz, Tony Pollard and Tyron Smith (among others). There’s no world in which the Cowboys are better now than they were a year ago, but financially they’re neck and neck with the Eagles in the division.
No team is projected to fall off more than Dallas in 2024. This team is on the verge of needing a complete rebuild to adapt to the league moving forward. They have regressed offensively and defensively, and while they still have a chance to make the playoffs, it’s laughable to rank them as one of the favorites in the entire NFL.
Minnesota Vikings — Underrated
+300 to make the playoffs, +1000 to make the NFC North
The loss of Kirk Cousins was certainly a big blow, but the impact it had on Minnesota’s confidence was immeasurable. Minnesota had serious quarterback issues after Cousins’ injury, but still managed to post a 4-4 record with Joshua Dobbs and Jalen Hall under center.
Once Justin Jefferson started missing games, everything went off the rails for the Vikings, a testament to how impactful he was as a receiver. It will take time for JJ McCarthy to take command, but Minnesota has the talent to make a playoff run with Sam Darnold under center.
This is another example of the odds not necessarily being wrong, but being far too harsh: This team is probably not a favorite to win the NFC North, but people are betting that they will finish far and away last in the division, having fallen so far behind the Lions, Packers and Bears.
I don’t think that’s going to happen and this team will surprise a lot of people, but there’s no need to be surprised they’re still a very good football team.
