President’s Remarks on Nuclear Deterrence Raise Eyebrows

The president, known for being cautious about discussing nuclear matters, made quite a statement during a recent visit to Asia.

On October 29th, he shared a brief note on Truth Social about nuclear weapons testing, making several notable claims:

• The U.S. possesses more nuclear weapons than any other nation.
• His first term saw a “complete renewal and refurbishment” of the nuclear arsenal.
• Due to nuclear testing by other countries, he has instructed the War Department to initiate tests in a similar fashion.
• These nuclear weapons tests “will begin immediately.”

It seems, unfortunately, that those advising the president might lack a grasp of some basic and verifiable facts, and, frankly, he doesn’t seem well-supported by his own team.

For instance, it’s widely acknowledged that Russia has the largest stockpile of nuclear weapons, with around 5,200 ready for use, totaling about 5,600 overall. Comparatively, the U.S. has approximately 3,700 and 4,400, respectively. These figures can easily be found in credible sources such as the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute and the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.

Moreover, during his first term, progress was made on the strategic modernization program initiated in 2010; however, many of the systems deployed during that time were quite dated—implemented between 2017 and 2021.

While a few modified low-yield warheads were created and development of new nuclear arms started, none have actually been deployed.

The president’s team also seems to confuse testing delivery systems, like missiles, with nuclear warhead tests. Notably, just days before he took office, Russia conducted tests on a new cruise missile and an underwater torpedo, neither of which falls under New START treaty limitations. Testing missile systems is standard practice for all nuclear-armed nations, including the U.S.

As of now, aside from North Korea’s test in 2017, neither Russia, China, nor other nuclear states have carried out any nuclear detonation tests. U.S. intelligence does express some concern regarding possible undisclosed low-yield tests by Russia and China; however, these don’t seem to align with the president’s statements.

Finally, it’s critical to note that nuclear weapons testing responsibility falls to the Department of Energy, not the War Department. After decades of diminishing focus, this department is likely unable to conduct tests anytime soon. Estimates indicate that reinitiating testing would take two to three years and cost several billion dollars, funds that Congress has yet to authorize or allocate.

When asked on his return trip from Asia about the implication behind his bold remarks, the president suggested that if other nations are testing, the U.S. should also follow suit. This logic, while seemingly sound, overlooks the current reliability of the U.S. nuclear capabilities, as well as the actual state of nuclear testing internationally. He certainly owes it to himself and national security to ensure he receives better, well-informed advice on such a significant matter. Time is of the essence.