Padres vs. Brewers: No Underdogs Here
The Padres are set to battle the league’s top team in the Division Series, but they’re not thinking of themselves as underdogs.
A few months ago, it seemed improbable that the Padres would reach this point. They ended June with an eight-game losing streak and went into the All-Star break with a mediocre .500 record. Honestly, that can feel like a ticket to nowhere in the NL West, especially with the Dodgers dominating the league. By the end of July, the Padres’ chances for the playoffs had plummeted to around 7.4%. The only chatter surrounding October seemed to be focused on potential firings.
But fast forward to Wednesday: The Padres not only swept the Cubs in the Wild Card round but did so as favorites. Over the final ten weeks of the season, they posted an impressive 41-18 record, which stood as the best in all of baseball—2.5 games ahead of the next best, the Brewers, who they’ll face in the Division Series on Saturday.
It’s not merely about a better record, though. By WAR, which attempts to quantify a player’s total contributions, no team outperformed the Padres in the second half of the season. They racked up 21.9 WAR, just ahead of the Cubs (21.8), Dodgers (21.5), Red Sox (21.4), and Brewers (20.2). This turnaround could be one of the most remarkable team transformations this century.
What’s driving San Diego’s resurgence? The Padres were among the lowest-scoring teams early in the season, but they turned it around, scoring the third most runs in the second half and posting a much-improved wRC+ of 119. With the Cubs out of contention, there’s a strong argument that the Padres possess the best lineup left in the postseason.
Let’s talk about the stars. Fernando Tatís Jr. really turned it around after a rough start this season. After hitting just .268/.345/.307 without a home run during his first 268 plate appearances, he found his rhythm. While he initially struggled, hitting hard with a 60% hard hit rate, his performance skyrocketed. On May 29, he hit his first home run, and by the end of the season, he had belted another 24, finishing with a .303/.368/.549 line and a 153 wRC+. His fWAR since that initial homer was among the league’s best, second only to Pete Crow-Armstrong. I guess you could say that while the Padres might have the best lineup, Tatís is arguably their best player.
What changed? It appears he adjusted his stance from a closed and wide position to a more open and upright one, which allowed his contact to travel better. Aiming for the shallowest part of the park, clearly, this strategy worked wonders for him.
Then there’s Jackson Merrill, who had an even rockier start in 2026. Through June, his numbers were underwhelming at .213/.271/.343. However, since then, he’s rebounded to .299/.338/.544. Unlike Tatís, though, the specifics of Merrill’s improvement aren’t as clear. He’s had a strong hard hit rate all year despite experiencing an uptick in his batting average. Maybe it just took some time for things to click. Still, paired with Tatís, the Padres’ offense has one fierce duo, especially considering their defensive and base-running skills.
It’s not just about those two. Ty France has emerged with his best-ever season at a 141 wRC+, a remarkable feat considering his recent waiver history. Manny Machado may not have been stellar overall, but he still tallied 30 homers and delivered solid defense. Their platoon players, like Samad Taylor, Austin Hays, and Dustin Harris, have also been contributors in their respective roles. Overall, the Padres’ lineup looks impressive.
On the pitching side, well, it’s a mixed bag. The Padres might be more suited for these shorter series. There’s not a wealth of depth in their rotation. Michael King has delivered some strong performances, including one against the Cubs, although he’s not quite a true ace. Nick Pivetta showed promise in limited starts after his elbow injury, and then there’s Walker Buhler, who is trying to regain his former playoff form, but he’s had his struggles since his surgery in 2022. While there are other potential starters for the NLDS, the reality is those three represent the best the Padres can offer right now in terms of starting pitching. So, pitching isn’t exactly their strong suit.
Fortunately for the Padres, their bullpen is outstanding—arguably the best in the league. Mason Miller is having an incredible season, averaging 101.4 mph on his fastball and striking out half the hitters he faces. Adrian Morejon has been an effective lefty, generating ground balls. There’s also Bradgley Rodriguez, who uses a unique changeup-first approach. The Padres have a bullpen filled with depth and versatility, which will be crucial.
And they’re going to need that strength against the Brewers in the NLDS. Milwaukee is coming off a 103-win season, the best in baseball for the second year in a row. It’s a significant achievement for the franchise. They share something in common with the Padres: a powerful offense and a solid bullpen. What sets them apart, however, is their strong rotation led by ace Jacob Misiorowski. It’s clear why they’re favorites in this series—and maybe even the entire postseason. The Padres have only just arguably elevated to the Brewers’ level, while Milwaukee has been consistent throughout the season.
Despite that, this matchup isn’t just a straightforward 103-game winner up against a 91-game winner. The Padres are a solid team, a lot better than their full-season numbers suggest. If everything goes as planned, either team could pose a significant challenge to the Dodgers in the NLCS, assuming they both make it out of Atlanta.
