If there are no wrong answers, does that mean there are no right answers either? At least, no answers that will please everyone.
In the annual midseason awards, Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Gunnar Henderson, Bobby Witt Jr. and possibly Jose Ramirez will be candidates for the AL MVP award. Steven Kwann, Kyle Tucker and possibly Royce Lewis will also be candidates if injuries don’t limit their seasons.
The American League has been great so far this year, and I’m going to recommend Jarren Duran, Riley Greene, and Carlos Correa.
For most of the first half, I thought Witt was the MVP, without the help of a deep supporting cast like the Yankees or Orioles, and due to a combination of impressive performances that make him not only the best defender among the most obvious candidates, but arguably the best defender in the sport (Fangraphs has him as the top fielder by that metric).
The reason I moved from Witt to Soto was because his stats were great, especially in the clutch, and he was a game changer for the Yankees’ lineup.
But as the first half progressed, it became clear that this was a battle between Henderson and Judge. They’re both incredibly valuable and coming off their best seasons in the major leagues.
I think the answer is Henderson because it feels like Henderson hasn’t even had a bad game this year, as opposed to Judge, who struggled in his first few weeks, and while Henderson is more valuable at shortstop, Judge’s ability to defend center field was invaluable to the Yankees, as it was for much of their historic 2022 season.
But this is about finding millimeters. Judge has basically been playing a different sport than the rest of us since late April. Somehow, he’s been a better hitter overall than he was in 2022, his best offensive season ever. He started the weekend with a .701 slugging percentage, but no eligible hitter has had a batting average above .700 since Barry Bonds in 2004.
Henderson combined the hitting ability of Corey Seager with the enthusiasm of Dustin Pedroia, adding a high level of shortstop defense and enough speed to steal 13 of 14 bases. He was on pace for 50+ home runs. Alex Rodriguez is the only shortstop with 50+ home runs. He led the major leagues in wins above replacement, with Judge right behind him, of course. It was that close. You could pick one or the other and you’re right.
2. Aaron Judge, Yankees. 3. Bobby Witt Jr., Royals. 4. Juan Soto, Yankees. 5. Jose Ramirez, Guardians.
AL Anti-MVP
Jose Abreu (formerly of the Astros)
With the offense once again struggling, candidates aren’t hard to find. The team seriously considered splitting the spot between DJ LeMahieu, Anthony Rizzo and Gleyber Torres, or between Toronto’s Bo Bichette and George Springer. But Abreu was so bad that the Astros first sent the 2020 AL MVP to the minor leagues, then waived him, still owing him about $30 million through next year.
Abreu’s OPS this season was .361, the lowest for a non-pitcher or catcher with at least 120 plate appearances since Dwayne Anderson’s .353 in 1973.
2. DJ LeMahieu/Anthony Rizzo/Gleyber Torres, Yankees. 3. Javier Valles/Spencer Thorkelson, Tigers. 4. Bo Bichette/George Springer, Blue Jays. 5. Andrew Benintendi/Martin Maldonado, White Sox.
National League MVP
Bryce Harper, Phillies
A full-time designated hitter has never won the MVP award. The closest he came was in 1979 when Don Baylor started 65 times as a DH. Shohei Ohtani has won it twice, once as a DH and once as a starting pitcher. This year, Ohtani is in position to become the first non-positional pitcher to win the award (no pun intended). His numbers are crazy. Ohtani joined Henderson and Ramirez as the only major leaguers with 20+ home runs and 10+ stolen bases. Coming into the weekend, Ohtani was 25/16 with a 1.045 OPS.
And Ohtani’s value will only increase with the absence of Mookie Betts, who was the front-runner for the National League MVP award before he broke his left hand on June 16 and was sidelined for six to eight weeks. Plus, with Harper (hamstring) placed on the injured list on Friday, Ohtani will undoubtedly be the front-runner for the award going forward.
But that’s a midseason award, and Harper has 20 homers as a first baseman with a .981 OPS (second only to Ohtani in the NL), and his OPS with runners in scoring position this year is 1.406. The next best in those situations among players with at least 75 plate appearances is Soto, at 1.179.
Remember, 2004 was the last time Bonds had a slugging percentage over .700 in a full season? Bonds had a 1.698 OPS with runners in scoring position that year, thanks in large part to the 90 intentional walks he gave up in those situations. That was the last time a player had a higher OPS in a full season than Harper does now. Ohtani’s OPS with runners in scoring position was .688.
With Betts and Harper both injured, Ohtani’s spot is wide open, 2023 National League MVP Ronald Acuna Jr. is out this season, Braves teammates Matt Olson and Austin Riley are down significantly from last season, as is Arizona’s Corbin Carroll, and Soto was traded to the American League.
2. Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers 3. Mookie Betts, Dodgers 4. Ketel Marte, Diamondbacks 5. Jurickson Profar, Padres.
NL Anti-MVP
Nolan Arenado/Paul Goldschmidt, Cardinals
Others have had worse seasons than the Cardinals’ corner infielders, but if they performed anywhere near what they were in 2022 when Goldschmidt won the NL MVP and Arenado finished second, St. Louis would be atop the NL Central. Manny Machado, who falls between Goldschmidt and Arenado in 2022, had a disappointing first half of the season before waking up recently.
2. Corbin Carroll, Diamondbacks. 3. Jeff McNeil, Mets. 4. Kris Bryant, Rockies. 5. Manny Machado, Padres.
AL Cy Young
Tarik Skubal, Tigers
The Detroit left-hander entered the weekend fourth in the AL in ERA, second in WHIP and fifth in strikeout rate.
There were also instances in the two Central Divisions where teams took advantage of the abundance of weak opponents to win, especially when the teams played 19 games each against opponents from their respective divisions.
But among pitchers who made at least five starts against the top 10 scoring teams, Skubal’s 0.88 ERA was the best in the major leagues, followed by Atlanta’s Chris Sale’s 1.88 ERA.
Special kudos to Kansas City’s Seth Lugo, who the Mets questioned about his durability as a starter, but he leads the AL in innings pitched and is third in ERA.
2. Corbin Burns, Orioles 3. Tanner Hauck, Red Sox 4. Seth Lugo, Royals 5. Logan Gilbert, Mariners.
AL Anti-Cy Young
Pablo Lopez, Twins
He was off to his best start of the year coming into Saturday’s start at Seattle, pitching eight scoreless innings against the Athletics with 14 strikeouts, but his overall numbers were a long way from his potential: a 5.11 ERA (second-worst among AL-qualified players) and 16 home runs allowed (well below his career-worst of 24).
2. Kenta Maeda, Tigers. 3. Kevin Gausman, Blue Jays. 4. Triston McKenzie, Guardians. 5. Aaron Civale, Rays.
National League Cy Young Award
Rangers Suarez, Phillies
Really, the answer here has to be the Phillies’ foursome of Suarez, Aaron Nola, Christopher Sanchez and Zack Wheeler.
Suarez, Sanchez and Wheeler were 1st, 2nd and 3rd in the National League ERA, but Atlanta’s Reinaldo Lopez did not meet the innings standard. Wheeler and Nola were 2-3 in innings pitched, with Suarez fifth. In WHIP, Suarez was 2nd, Wheeler was 5th and Nola was 6th.
Phillies starters have allowed two or fewer earned runs over seven innings 24 times. The next most are the Mariners with 17. The next most in the National League are the Braves with 15. Wheeler has done it seven times, Nola six, Sanchez and Suarez five each. As a team, for example, the Mets have done it just five times.
Phillies starters have allowed two or fewer runs over seven innings 23 times. The next most in the National League is the Braves with 15. Wheeler has done it seven times, Nola six, Suarez five and Sanchez four. The Mets, for example, have done it five times as a team.
Both the Dodgers (Tyler Glasnow) and Braves (Sale) traded talented, injury-prone pitchers in the offseason, but both have been durable (Glasnow is fourth in the NL in innings pitched) and have produced impressive numbers.
2. Tyler Glasnow, Dodgers. 3. Chris Sale, Braves. 4. Zack Wheeler, Phillies. 5. Logan Webb, Giants.
NL Anti-Cy Young
Blake Snell, Giants
His partner, Jordan Montgomery, who signed late and missed most of spring training, has at least some positive performances with a 6.03 ERA in 13 starts. Snell has been on the disabled list (two) more times than he has started five innings (none). Last year’s NL Cy Young Award winner had a 9.51 ERA in six starts.
Snell and Montgomery had to work hard to make sure the loss wasn’t suffocated by Edwin Diaz, who missed four saves in May, temporarily lost his closer role and was suspended for possessing an illegal sticky substance on the mound.
2. Jordan Montgomery, Diamondbacks. 3. Edwin Diaz, Mets. 4. Walker Buehler, Dodgers. 5. Joe Musgrove, Padres.
AL Rookie of the Year
Luis Gil, Yankees
He held onto the record by a hair over Oakland closer Mason Miller, but his past few starts don’t bode well for him to hold onto the record for the entire season, but his overall production is impressive, with a .169 batting average and 28 percent strikeout rate despite two poor starts.
The Red Sox are in the running for the championship in part because of rookies like Wilyer Abreu, David Hamilton, Sedan Rafaela, Cooper Criswell and Justin Slayton, and the Guardians are leading the AL Central in part because of the rookie setup duo of Hunter Gaddis and Cade Smith, who have combined for a 1.70 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in 75 games.
2. Mason Miller, Athletics. 3. Colton Cowser, Orioles. 4. Willy Abreu, Red Sox. 5. Hunter Gaddis/Cade Smith, Guardians.
National League Rookie of the Year
Jackson Merrill, Padres
The National League is much better than the American League in this category, with Kyle Harrison, Shota Imanaga, Jared Jones, Tobias Myers, Mitchell Parker, Gavin Stone, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto all having great seasons, especially in the starting pitchers. Pittsburgh’s Paul Skeens only made his debut on May 8, but his dominating performance has led me to believe that if he stays healthy, he will eventually win this award. However, in these difficult times for hitting, I’m looking forward to a rookie who excels in hitting.
In Merrill’s case, he was considered the third-best prospect among prospects named Jackson, but he’s outperformed Baltimore’s Jackson Holiday and Milwaukee’s Jackson Ciorio. A natural shortstop, Merrill learned center field on the fly (no pun intended) in spring training and has thrived there. But when you add in starting pitchers, Milwaukee reliever Brian Hudson, Brewers infielder Joey Ortiz, Cubs first baseman Michael Bush and Cardinals shortstop Mashin Winn, you have 10-12 strong candidates trying to squeeze into the five spots.
2. Mason Winn, Cardinals. 3. Gavin Stone, Dodgers. 4. Joey Ortiz, Brewers. 5. Brian Hudson, Brewers.
