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The presence of the IRGC makes it harder for the US to carry out a search and rescue operation for the F-15E crew.

Victor Davis Hanson suggests the Iranian government might collapse in weeks due to the air campaign.

Counterterrorism experts are indicating that the significant presence of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) at the crash site of the F-15E fighter jet could hinder search and rescue operations for the missing U.S. crew members. Jim Hanson, the chief strategist at the Middle East Forum and a former U.S. Army Special Forces member, discussed this during an appearance on Fox & Friends Weekend.

The crash occurred in Khuzestan province, which is home to Arab tribes that oppose Iran’s central authority. While these local tribes could potentially assist the stranded airmen, the IRGC is also likely to be on alert to suppress any dissent. Hanson remarked, “The Revolutionary Guards and Basij have a heightened presence to tackle any protests, which is pretty disheartening.”

He emphasized the need for caution in the region: “The regime is trying to involve as many citizens as they can, and we can only hope those who oppose it will receive help instead of harm.” He speculated that the downed airmen might have sought refuge in challenging terrain, making it harder for the IRGC to reach them. He acknowledged that while this could complicate U.S. efforts to locate the missing crew, it could also enhance their safety.

“We definitely don’t want large groups of Basij and other regime forces to easily catch up to them in pickup trucks,” he added.

Hanson described the recovery mission as a “balancing act,” noting that military officials are weighing the decision to send additional troops into the area without making themselves targets. Meanwhile, retired Air Force Brigadier General John Teichert, who once piloted an F-15E, suggested that despite the perilous environment, the ongoing silence may be a positive indicator. He expressed some concern regarding the time elapsed since the jet went down, but noted it might be advantageous as the airmen could be regrouping for training.

Teichert said, “They’ve chosen a spot that suggests they haven’t fallen into enemy hands, and the mission now is to find the right approach to rescue based on the surrounding terrain and enemy placements.”

There were two pilots aboard the F-15E when it crashed; one was rescued on Friday. The Revolutionary Guards and Iranian state media have taken responsibility for downing the aircraft.

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