Odds for Eastern Conference Champion and the Raptors’ Potential

If you take a peek at FanDuel’s odds for the Eastern Conference Champion, you’ll notice the defending New York Knicks are listed at +340. Following closely are the Philadelphia 76ers at +400, the Boston Celtics at +500, the Detroit Pistons at +850, and the Cleveland Cavaliers at +900. They round out the top five favorites.

But here’s the thing — there’s one team that’s not in that top five that could very well outperform all of them, and that’s the Toronto Raptors. Currently, they’re sitting at sixth with odds of +950, indicating an implied probability of about 9.5%. Honestly, I think this is a significant underestimation of their capabilities, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the basketball community looks back and regrets doubting the Raptors.

There’s a solid reason SB Nation sees Toronto as a top-5 contender in the league as the season kicks off. With the official addition of Kawhi Leonard, the Raptors have assembled all the necessary pieces to emerge as a dark horse for the Larry O’Brien Trophy.

Why the Raptors are so good

I might be a bit overly optimistic about the Raptors, but it’s tough to ignore the unique way they’ve enhanced their roster during the offseason.

So, let me break this down. Both the Raptors and Pistons were strong defensive teams last season (the Raptors ranked fifth in defensive rating while the Pistons were second). Each was led by their 2021 NBA Draft top-five picks, Scottie Barnes and Cade Cunningham, respectively, who are now focused on improving offensively (15th in offensive rating for the Raptors, 10th for the Pistons).

For the Pistons, their strategy involved some traditional moves, adding players like Isaiah Joe and John Collins to boost their offense. However, this meant sacrificing Isaiah Stewart, arguably their second-best defensive player, as well as veteran presence Tobias Harris and Caris LeVert, who had a strong defensive rating. It’s a classic case, really; they enhanced their offense but at the expense of their defense.

The Raptors, on the other hand, made a significant offseason move by trading away Brandon Ingram, Gradey Dick, and some draft picks for two-time champion Kawhi Leonard. This trade appears stable, with no signs of being reversed by the league.

While Dick is a promising prospect, he barely played under coach Darko Rajakovic last season, averaging just 14 minutes a game. Thus, losing him shouldn’t have a big impact. In essence, the Raptors swapped Ingram for Leonard, who brings a higher offensive skill set along with better defensive abilities.

Leonard not only provides an upgrade on both ends, but he also meshes well with other high-usage players. In fact, last season, the Raptors performed better when Barnes was on the court alone compared to when he played alongside Ingram. Conversely, during their championship season in 2018-19, Leonard and Pascal Siakam (who shares some offensive weaknesses with Barnes) were more effective together than separately.

Another notable addition is Allen Graves, whom the Raptors selected with the 19th pick in the recent draft. I’m not a draft expert by any means, but everything I’ve observed about Graves suggests he could make an immediate impact on both ends of the floor. At the very least, he doesn’t negatively affect the team’s balance.

Compared to the Pistons, the Raptors have managed to strengthen their weaknesses while still maintaining their defensive strengths. Remarkably, even with the 35-year-old Leonard in the mix, the team remains relatively young. If Rajakovic’s approach aligns with this thinking, all the other starters (Barnes, Collin-Murray Boyles, Immanuel Quickley, and RJ Barrett) will all be under 27. On the bench, they’ve got Graves as well as Jamal Shead and Ja’Kobe Walter, both under 24, plus veterans like Jakob Poeltl and Kyle Anderson to provide essential experience. There’s a lot of room for growth yet enough reliability to handle the ups and downs of an NBA season.

Of course, the success of this hinges on Leonard’s health, which has been notoriously unpredictable in the past. Before last season, Leonard had only exceeded 60 games once since his previous stint with the Raptors. But I wonder, is that any more concerning than having Jayson Tatum or Paul George lead the Celtics, or relying on a play style that often leads to playoff upsets? Is it riskier than having a 42-year-old in the lineup along with players like Joel Embiid, who also has his own record of injuries? And then there’s the Cavaliers, featuring three players who can’t shoot — is it more uncertain than that? Personally, I don’t think so.

All the teams ahead of the Raptors have significant shortcomings (and, to be fair, even the Knicks are coping with the departure of Mitchell Robinson). When looking at it purely on the surface, the Raptors seem to have the fewest flaws in the Eastern Conference. Historically, the team that emerges in the playoffs often has the least amount of weaknesses, and the Raptors are well-positioned for that.”