Typically, when sportsbooks like FanDuel assign a win total for a team during the regular season, that team often ends up within that range. Take the Charlotte Hornets, for example; their win total is set at 37.5. Since they are expected to be around the playoff or play-in spots in the Eastern Conference, it’s reasonable to think they’ll land somewhere in the 35-40 win range.
On the other hand, the Minnesota Timberwolves, who recently traded with the Hornets, are a bit of an anomaly in this regard. Currently, their win line is set at 48.5, but, you know, simply classifying them as a high 40-win team seems too simplistic when considering the complexities of their roster changes.
This next season—2026-27, that is—might end up being a make-or-break year for them.
The Timberwolves’ Big Offseason Changes
The Timberwolves just wrapped up their most successful three-year tenure in franchise history, winning 154 regular season games—tied for fifth overall with the New York Knicks—advancing through five playoff series, and reaching the Western Conference Finals twice.
Despite this winning track record, the Timberwolves made some surprising moves, trading away two cornerstone players from that era: Julius Randle and Naz Reid. They brought in LaMelo Ball and Jonathan Kuminga in their place and also re-signed Ayo Dosunmu.
Previously, the team built its reputation on a formidable frontcourt, featuring Rudy Gobert, Jaden McDaniels, Reid, and either Randle or Karl-Anthony Towns, focusing heavily on defense and toughness.
Offensively, they relied on the extraordinary talent of Anthony Edwards and their prolific 3-point shooting. However, it turned out to be overwhelming for Edwards to carry the entire creative burden for the team (he’s in the sixth percentile for assist rate relative to usage, according to Cleaning the Glass). Nothing against him, but he seems to fit better in a nuanced role rather than as the sole creator—similar to many great players before him.
In both the regular season and playoffs, Randle was a reliable secondary option, but his inefficiency and inconsistency meant he couldn’t fully deliver in high-pressure situations (his stats from the 2025 postseason tell that story quite clearly).
The Timberwolves attempted to solve this by placing players like Mike Conley Jr. and Bones Hyland next to Edwards in the backcourt, but neither of them had enough offensive clout to offset the defensive weaknesses they brought to the table. Dosunmu, on the other hand, is more like a spark off the bench than a complete fix.
In light of this, the Timberwolves traded Randle and Reid to create space for Ball. There’s a case to be made that Ball’s defensive skills are even more questionable than those of veteran Conley, who at least had experience to rely on. Still, Ball brings an offensive prowess that makes the trade-off worthwhile. Last season, he ranked tenth in the league in Offensive Estimated Plus-Minus (according to Dunks & Threes), and the Hornets’ offense thrived, landing in the 98th percentile when he played. His passing ability could also provide much-needed support for Edwards’ weaknesses.
Diving back into Dosunmu’s numbers following his mid-season acquisition, he excelled for the Timberwolves, averaging 14.4 points, 3.5 assists, and 1 steal per game with an impressive 61.9% true shooting during 24 games. His quickness and aggressive playstyle overwhelmed the Denver Nuggets in the first round (he averaged 21.8 points in that series). Retaining him was a smart move, and he’s likely to be a strong contender for Sixth Man of the Year.
Kuminga, while not without his challenges (more on that shortly), comes with an average annual value of $6.2 million and a player option for the second year—definitely worth the gamble. If he fulfills his potential, he might offer more versatility as a forward than either Randle or Reid ever could, despite both having their own defensive flaws.
Why Are the Timberwolves So Volatile?
This offseason, the Timberwolves raised their ceiling in a significant way. With a lineup of Ball, Edwards, McDaniels, Kuminga, and Gobert, they have a unit with more two-way potential than any grouping they’ve had in a while. Given the team’s troubled history, this could be one of their better lineups ever. Yet, this shift also means they’ve lowered their floor.
Despite their shortcomings, Randle and Reid provided reliability that the Timberwolves could depend on. They also served as competent backup centers when Gobert needed a break. Now, Joan Beringer, a second-year big man who logged only 314 minutes last season, is next in line. While he has potential, it remains to be seen how effective he can be during crucial NBA moments.
On paper, Ball seems like the ideal fit alongside Edwards, McDaniels, and Gobert. I think the talk about him being merely an empty-calorie player is largely exaggerated (I had him rated as the 14th best player in the 2025-26 season). But the fact remains that he didn’t manage to lead the Hornets to a playoff appearance in his six years there. So, he’s somewhat untested in high-stakes situations.
Kuminga possesses the physicality and athleticism to be akin to the Timberwolves’ version of Aaron Gordon, though his camp seems to have ideas of him reaching Giannis Antetokounmpo levels, leading him to search for an elusive contract over the past couple of summers.
The depth behind the team’s six best players—those five starters plus Dosunmu—is pretty uncertain as well. We’ve already discussed the worries tied to Beringer being the only other viable big man. The rest of the roster includes Terrence Shannon Jr., Donte DiVincenzo (who might miss the entire season), Trey Lyles, Jaylen Clark, Isaiah Evans, and Hyland—a mix of untested talent and players with clear limitations. Of this group, Shannon has the most potential for a breakout, which could serve as a safety net for the team should Kuminga fail to deliver.
Minnesota is taking a calculated risk by swapping out a familiar formula for components that *should* elevate their game, though they come with noteworthy uncertainties. They’re hoping Ball and Kuminga can finally bring tangible benefits, trusting McDaniels and Gobert can keep their health intact to maintain a top-tier defensive squad, and wishing all these pieces align in time to compete with the elite teams at the top of the conference, namely the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs.
In an environment where many sports front offices play it safe to secure their jobs, the Timberwolves are fully committing. They understand the associated risks. If this doesn’t pan out, Edwards—the brightest talent they’ve had since Kevin Garnett—might want to explore options elsewhere. But they’re equally aware of the potential rewards that could finally break their longstanding hurdles.
