Hey there, readers.
This is a major risk for Trump. Is it going to pay off? What does this mean for America First? And who’s really in charge?
Let’s dive in!
trump doctrine
Shortly after President Trump publicly acknowledged the attack in Venezuela, a New York Times reporter called his personal cell around 4:30 AM.
After a few rings, Trump picked up.
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Just nine days into his presidency, Trump’s first secret military order took a turn for the worse. A joint raid by SEALs and UAE special forces in Yemen aimed to gather intelligence and, if possible, capture or kill senior al-Qaeda figures. It was intended to be discreet yet, risky—a hallmark of Trump’s military strategy.
Unfortunately, the operation quickly unraveled upon landing. Al-Qaeda was more prepared and organized than anticipated. What was meant to be a quick strike became an extended firefight, resulting in civilian casualties and local outrage. Tragically, one SEAL was killed, and they had to destroy their damaged aircraft on-site during the withdrawal.
Some terrorists were killed, but from many perspectives—especially those on the ground—it was deemed a disaster.
Still, Trump and his defense secretary, James Mattis, heralded it as a victory.
I suspect Trump took some important lessons from that encounter, which became evident in his next significant move.
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I imagine it like a scene from when President Bush received news about the Twin Towers. In April 2017, at Mar-a-Lago, as President Xi Jinping enjoyed some chocolate cake, a Secret Service agent discreetly approached Trump to deliver urgent news.
It was still early in Trump’s term, and there might have been some media pushback regarding his choices, but he met with Xi anyway.
For me, this is when the Trump Doctrine really started to take shape.
As Xi was taking a bite of cake, Trump informed him about the bombing of a Russian-controlled airstrip in Syria.
I recall sharing this at the time; Trump was profoundly affected by images of Syrian children harmed by sarin gas. Advanced U.S. military capabilities tracked the flight from its launch point.
Initially, Trump hesitated but then realized he couldn’t shake off the image. He came up with a plan.
I can almost picture him telling Xi, “James Mattis just bombed a Russian airstrip in Syria.”
And then just waiting to see Xi’s reaction.
It was a low-profile operation, but not without its risks. The Russians were warned, and they took heed, understanding Trump and Mattis meant business.
And now, Xi does too.
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Oddly, the NYT reporter seemed both surprised and not surprised by Trump’s reaction. It’s curious; Trump is the same age Biden was when he took office, yet he continuously tweets late into the night.
The reporter quickly shifted gears and asked about the situation in Venezuela.
“We had some great plans, great troops, fantastic people,” Trump said. “Honestly, it was a remarkable operation.”
And indeed, it was in light of what we know now.
When pressed for details, Trump suggested a press conference later that morning.
“The call lasted 50 seconds,” according to the Times’ Tyler Pager.
Hours later, the pager had moved along in the security line.
Trump and his team deliberated over the attack for about an hour and a half.
You’d hardly guess he had fewer than four hours of sleep.
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When dealing with ISIS in 2017, Trump’s strategy seemed to align with what some had predicted would happen in Iraq and Afghanistan. Unfortunately, we ended up committing large numbers of troops to both areas, with disastrous outcomes documented in numerous books.
However, under the Trump Doctrine, ground invasions and occupations were off the table.
Instead, he opted for low visibility, minimal military presence, and aggressive precision strikes. Airstrike rules were relaxed, allowing for swift tactical decisions.
Small teams utilized every available American technological advantage—without heavy armament—to maximize enemy casualties while minimizing our own.
Ghost-like, these units would strike, eliminate high-ranking targets, and retreat, repeating the cycle.
This strategy culminated in the renowned attack on Baghdadi, with Trump declaring, “He died like a dog.”
And just like that, the formidable ISIS, which had gained control over vast regions of Iraq, Syria, and Africa, crumbled into nothing.
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Not long after, Trump would target Iran’s top general as he left the White House.
Qasem Soleimani had been widely regarded as a chief architect of global Islamic terrorism.
For Soleimani, ISIS was merely a pawn in his game.
Once confident of his safety, he drove openly through Baghdad.
The narrative was that Trump would avoid war with Iran, fearing backlash from his supporters. How would they perceive Soleimani’s assassination?
Yet, Trump detested inaction, particularly in the face of ongoing violence, leading him to act decisively against Soleimani.
The “flying ginsu” was a type of kinetic weapon that didn’t explode. It functioned like a massive spear, utilizing spinning blades upon impact.
Instead of a traditional bomb, Trump opted for a clean operation. No debris left behind… just a powerful signal sent to Iran.
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The recent operation in Venezuela epitomizes the Trump Doctrine. It achieved multiple objectives, and unpacking its implications will take time.
Around 150 aircraft coordinated for the strike, involving special forces from the Navy, Marine Corps, and Air Force, plus elite DOJ members (possibly DEA). A precise execution.
Delta Force even built a full-scale version of Maduro’s mansion for training.
The operation went off without a hitch. Radar went dark across two continents, leaving anti-aircraft defenses ineffective. The U.S. air force operated freely, targeting as desired.
On the ground, Delta forces breached Maduro’s palace, eliminating all Cuban operatives tasked with supporting Maduro. Cuba later acknowledged 32 of their citizens were killed, while we reported no losses.
They then reportedly used advanced technology to silence Maduro before extracting him to the USS Iwo Jima.
Meanwhile, Trump seemed disconnected from the broader narrative while the media speculated about the onset of a new war.
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Imagine magnifying that moment with Xi and the cake by at least $100 billion. China must be feeling the sting.
Trump escalated the stakes by executing the raid while Chinese diplomats were still visiting Venezuela as part of a diplomatic effort.
China has heavily invested, over $60 billion in Venezuela’s development, especially targeting oil and energy sectors, plus holding another $20 billion in Venezuelan debt. And that’s just what’s publicly acknowledged.
In a way, Venezuela represented a key element of China’s Belt and Road initiative, aimed at challenging U.S. global dominance.
This financial burden alone is significant. Any successor to Maduro will have to renegotiate these agreements.
Venezuela was also fortified with Chinese radar and coastal defense systems. Quite a lot of good came out of this, no doubt. (As they say, buy American.)
Additionally, it seems Trump had intel indicating Maduro’s precise location.
That’s concerning for Xi. China provided much of Venezuela’s surveillance and control technologies.
If Xi can’t detect traitors in Venezuela, what does that imply about the Communist Party’s own ability to surveil?
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The situation in China seems complicated, while Russia and Iran are in similarly precarious positions.
Russia allegedly supplied key defense systems to Venezuela, which proved ineffective against U.S. cyber capabilities. No Russian aircraft seemed to take flight during the operation. There were also military advisors present with Maduro; their whereabouts remain uncertain.
Iran, in turn, realizes that being allied with Beijing or Moscow offers little real security.
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Domestically, Trump has amassed the largest online engagement base in history.
As the first genuine socialist authoritarian emerges in New York City, the world’s most notorious socialist dictator is captured and brought to justice.
It’s almost poetic.
What remains of the NDP? Will they produce a “Maryland Man” to argue for reinstalling Maduro as de facto “President” of Venezuela?
As always, they find themselves losing a lopsided debate.
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The same NYT reporter, Pager, had previously reached out to Biden, noting the stark difference in responses.
Biden’s team was alarmed, leading to hasty measures, including a change of number.
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Transforming global order and domestic politics in a matter of hours is remarkable. Not a single U.S. asset was lost during the operation. As of now, we don’t have large ground forces in Caracas.
The vice president of Venezuela is currently in turmoil, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio essentially warning Caracas: get your act together, or else.
This represents a big gamble for the Trump Doctrine. Venezuela risks spiraling into further instability, but a more stable, pro-American alternative might emerge.
If that occurs (and I’ll admit, that’s a big “if”), America and its new leaders might collaborate to harness a significant chunk of global oil reserves. Once seen as South America’s gem, if Venezuela rebounds, it could attract many immigrants to the U.S.
Right now, the Trump Doctrine is becoming clearer. It emphasizes swift, aggressive, yet non-committal actions to achieve targeted objectives. Destroy military installations, eliminate leadership, and communicate clearly to geopolitical challengers like Beijing and Moscow. What took decades and billions to establish in Venezuela evaporated in mere hours.
The international community now recognizes that China’s financial resources and technology do not guarantee safety. Ironically, you can bank on that.
Ah, President Xi, hope you enjoyed that cake.
I’ve heard it’s quite something.
