Decided by US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, Visit the Philippines This week, during his initial official visit, signifies a vital and enduring affirmation of the longstanding relations with America’s oldest allies in the Indo-Pacific.
This marks the highest-ranking officials from the Trump administration arriving in Manila; China’s heightened aggression against Philippine territorial claims has increased over the past year, involving military-grade lasers, high-pressure water cannons, and even the use of knives and shafts. Incidents involving Philippine Navy Ships have resulted in injuries to personnel.
This situation arises while many US allies and partners reevaluate their perspectives on the future commitment of the US alliance.
The capability of the Philippine military and Coast Guard to counteract and repel China’s intrusions is advancing. Ongoing support from the US provides necessary security aids, yet it falls short of effectively altering Beijing’s strategic calculations.
This calculation is further complicated by China’s perception that the US is reluctant to escalate through military intervention in reaction to persistent aggressive actions. China’s harassment and direct assaults on Philippine military and coast guard vessels and personnel are likely to escalate, raising the risk of further Philippine casualties, whether accidental or due to miscalculations.
A potentially catastrophic situation is developing that could place the US at a disadvantage, risking escalation to conflict, damaging its credibility as a reliable ally, or both. To avert either of these costly scenarios, it is imperative to swiftly enhance credible deterrence.
This can be achieved in the medium to long term through the sustained provision of robust Military and Security Assistance aimed at modernizing the capacities of the Philippine forces and the Coast Guard. This particularly applies to areas such as advanced autonomous systems, surveillance, intelligence data collection, and other significant maritime capabilities. The ongoing efforts of the US Indo-Pacific Command and other entities within the Defense and State Departments in supporting these modernization initiatives are commendable.
However, in the immediate future, a decisive strategy to fortify reliable deterrence and demonstrate that the alliance is indeed solid is to formally invoke the Mutual Defense Treaty, specifically Article III and possibly Article IV in reaction to any future Chinese aggressions.
Article III invites parties to “consult together from time to time” if “territorial integrity, political independence, or the security of either party is threatened by externally armed attacks in the Pacific.” Article IV mandates parties to respond to mutual threats such as Chinese aggressions “according to constitutional processes.”
As directed by the treaty, invoking Article III or IV does not necessitate a direct military response, but it does require Congress to evaluate the extent of support for the Philippines in light of threats and attacks.
By invoking the treaty, the United States can systematically review the level and type of support it offers to the Philippines in response to Chinese invasions. Such assertive actions will clarify specific causes and effects for China and reinforce the perceived reliability of the US as an ally.
The United States can illustrate that its treaty partners take action when they face serious threats or attacks. These responses should be calculated but substantive and must follow constitutional protocols.
Strong responses will deter China from future assaults and compel them to consider immediate and potentially unstable military options about supporting the Philippines in any crisis with dire implications.
Formally invoking mutual defense agreements shouldn’t be seen as provocative, but rather as a supportive mechanism to enhance the development of the Philippine defense and national security capabilities.
Such assertive measures will hold China accountable for its unlawful and aggressive activities. They will also ensure that the US response to China’s aggressions is measured and carefully considered according to constitutional processes.
China continues to intensify its aggressive actions and cannot impede the expansionist agenda in the Western Philippine Sea. Given the Philippines’ limited capabilities and the uncertainty regarding the US’s commitment to aiding treaty allies, it may perceive the situation as confrontational.
The US can recalibrate both of these dynamics regarding China. It must establish clear expectations for its commitment to the Alliance and uphold its obligations under the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty while investing in restoring credible deterrence and enhancing capabilities.
President Bonbon Marcos Jr., the Secretary of Defense, and senior leaders in the Philippines have shown resolve in defending Philippine sovereignty and committing to fortifying the long-standing US-Philippines alliance. This comes at a time when there is bipartisan consensus in the US about prioritizing national security interests in the Indo-Pacific.
The advantage of America’s approach in fostering this relationship lies in strengthening alliances and partnerships in this key region. Another favorable situation is emerging. In this case, it represents a beneficial opportunity.
The United States and the Philippines should capitalize on this moment to bolster the credibility of their alliance and establish an effective and enduring deterrent aimed at maintaining peace within Philippine territory and throughout the region.
Joseph Felter is a researcher at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution and previously served as the deputy secretary of defense for South and Southeast Asia during the initial Trump administration.
