America's Western allies are preparing for Donald Trump's return, still hoping for the best, but little prepared for the potentially chaotic and disorienting worst.
In the run-up to Inauguration Day, Trump uses his influence to raise tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico, and vow to buy (or invade) Greenland and the Panama Canal. A signal similar to the Catherine wheel is being transmitted. The aim is to pressure Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to accept a ceasefire in Gaza, which the Israeli prime minister has resisted since May.
At the same time, his pick for Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, gave four-and-a-half hours of testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, with a breadth of knowledge and views more reminiscent of James Baker III in his prime than Steve Bannon. was. .
Mr. Rubio and the State Department's influence over foreign policy over other government agencies, court favorites and numerous special envoys is already a question in Europe, with chief of staff Sue Wiles and Much will depend on the National Security Adviser. Mike Waltz.
Searching for signals amidst all this noise, distinguishing between threats that foreshadow action rather than negotiation bluster, and searching for the rationale for administration decisions is already perplexing and keeping diplomats in Washington up at night.
President Trump has become more candid that unpredictability is his modus operandi. For example, he told the Wall Street Journal that he was glad that Chinese President Xi Jinping “respects me because he knows I'm crazy as hell.” Ta.
Unfortunately, the fear of madmen fades if they don't sometimes do really crazy things. As a result, many expect President Trump to quickly take office, sway his opponents and prove there is substance to his America First approach.
You can't hope to end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours, start mass deportations, or impose 25% tariffs around the world on Day 1, but how many countries, starting with Canada, China, and Mexico? It is expected that he will reveal whether foreign countries are in his sights.
Canadian diplomats, stunned at being thrust onto the front lines alongside China, spent much of last week camped out in Washington trying to get Republican senators to listen.
Despite its internal divisions, Canada says it has three steps in retaliation to increase imports worth $150 billion from the United States if President Trump starts a trade war.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum held talks with Latin American foreign ministers on Friday to develop a common Trump strategy and claimed to have a consulate plan in place should mass deportations begin.
China has been preparing for retaliation for a year and is looking for allies.
“Allies will try a combination of appeasement, resilience and retaliation, and middle powers will step up to maintain free trade as they have in the past,” said Chietigi Vajpayee, a South Asia researcher at Chatham House. I'm predicting it. [Trump’s] First period. ”
However, in Europe, where public hostility toward President Trump is stronger than in other regions, there is a strong sense that this is the case. German Economy Minister Robert Habeck predicts pessimistically that US tariffs on the EU will be aimed at hurting German industry. Even transatlantic advocates such as Friedrich Merz, widely tipped to be the next chancellor, argue that EU unity is a prerequisite to seizing any opportunity for a successful relationship.
More generally, European diplomats say the Trump administration's policies may be more nuanced than his rhetoric and insist they are not clutching at straws. In 2016, President Trump threatened to impose 30% tariffs on Mexico, but compromised by renegotiating the North American Free Trade Agreement. The EU ultimately agreed in 2018 to buy more U.S. liquefied gas and soybeans, avoiding tariffs on cars. A similar plan is expected to be proposed this time as well.
The transcript of Mr. Rubio's Senate confirmation hearing has also been cited as an indication that the United States has no intention of pulling up the drawbridge. His evidence repeatedly referred to America's global role and the importance of fostering alliances, even admitting that he preferred working with Mexico over fighting drug cartels.
Regarding Ukraine, it is true that he said that the government's official position is that “the war must end,'' and that this requires territorial concessions from both sides. But Rubio said Ukraine needed to be in a strong negotiating position before a ceasefire could begin, adding that President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine was “unacceptable.”
“President Putin's goal now is to basically impose neutrality on Ukraine, come back with some renovations, and have as much influence as possible so that he can do it again in four or five years.” added. And I don't think that's an outcome that any of us would like. ” Pressured that Ukraine must offer military neutrality, he refused to agree, saying, “Even if the conflict ends, Ukraine still needs the ability to defend itself.” A British official said: “It is hard to believe that neutral Ukraine would leave without security guarantees.''
Regarding NATO, Rubio said he supports the Kyne-Rubio Act of 2023, which would prohibit the U.S. president from withdrawing from NATO without Senate approval. Overall, his call for Europe to contribute more to its own defense has been a familiar refrain from every American politician for the past two decades.
Only once did he hint at a broader security review, when he asked: “Should the role of the United States and NATO in the 21st century be a primary defense role, or a backstop to aggression as countries in the region take on more responsibility?” More Contributions By doing? ”
Mr. Rubio, a well-known China hawk, insisted he did not believe Beijing wanted a military conflict, saying, “China basically believes that the United States is a tired and declining great power.'' They conclude that no matter what happens, the next 20 or 30 years. They are on a path to naturally replace us over the years, and I think what they hope is that there will be no trade or armed conflict for a while. Because it could interfere with what we believe.”
For example, when looking for an alliance with China in the Indo-Pacific region, he said, “It would be a mistake to approach it with a Cold War-era mindset of choosing sides right now.'' Overall, he framed the conflict with China in terms of reducing the dependence of the U.S. economy and the economies of its allies on China.
It also refused to abandon Syria's Kurds to Turkey and did not advocate a simple withdrawal from the Middle East, a position welcomed in Europe. “It makes sense to abandon a partner who actually imprisoned ISIS at great cost and threat,” he said, referring to the Syrian Defense Forces. [Islamic State] Fighter plane. One of the reasons we were able to dismantle ISIS was because we were willing to put them in prison, even under personal threat. ”
Even when it came to Iran, he offered a mixed view, recognizing that there were schools in Iran that were in “a very difficult situation and in need of shelter,” while others recognized that there were schools in the country that were in “very difficult situations and needed shelter,” while others needed to be safe from foreign interference. He claimed that some schools believed it was best to acquire nuclear weapons. weapon.
Rubio rightly said the Trump administration would be the most pro-Israel in history, but still refused to allow Israel to return to control of Gaza, saying: Rule? Is it the Palestinian Authority or some other organization? Because it has to be someone. ”
He also said genocide was ongoing in Sudan, meaning the United States needed to call out the United Arab Emirates for “openly supporting an organization that is committing genocide.” , agreed with the outgoing Democratic Party administration.
But does Rubio's opinion matter?
Former Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has warned that Donald Trump will be the only decision-maker in the new US administration.
President Turnbull will be tested amid a flurry of executive orders from the White House next week, many of them hostile to America's allies, first by confronting bullying, then by convincing them there is common ground. I advise that it will happen. It's both commercial and political, and one of the questions President Trump always asks is, “What's in it for me?”
