The shockwaves and anger are still reverberating. democracy circle Because one of their (former) favorites, polling analyst Nate Silver, so bravely said: shout There’s the fact that President Biden’s poll numbers are poor, and that Biden and his White House staff have no clear plan to get out of the president’s precipitous decline. Mr. Silver’s logic and hard data clearly show that Mr. Biden is in trouble.
Silver is like the WebMD of politics. It’s pretty good at diagnosing, but not so great at prescribing treatments. Although he explicitly teased many of the significant polling problems facing Biden, correctly concluding that these problems are persistent and speculating that the White House lacks any solutions, , his solution, a series of interviews with media not fully captured by the left, was a triumph. I won’t work.
There are two problems with silver. 1) Biden may not be able to handle it. 2) Even if he were perfectly consistent, he would likely provoke the Democratic voter base over issues like Israel and immigration.
Can Biden perform without internet?
Silver recommends that Biden reassure the public by conducting four interviews with “unfriendly” media. His definition of “unfriendly” is an outlet that doesn’t appeal to either Joe Biden or Donald Trump. Although it is doubtful that such coverage actually exists, his implicit suggestion is that such an interview would at least address some difficult questions.
This assumes Biden is up to the task. But as Silver himself points out, the White House has responded to recent controversies with excuses, stonewalling and criticizing anyone who questions his opinions. mental acuity. It’s a logical assumption if Biden is the one who has been spending more than ever before. 50 years of electoral politicshe would just do it if he could do a series of interviews.
And then there’s Biden’s history. Both the past and the recent past, Due to gaffes and unfortunate off-the-cuff remarks, he was forced to leave.Recently he replaced The presidents of Mexico and Egypt argued this. we had just met François Mitterrand, the long-dead President of France.
So what are the chances that Biden will go 4-4 in an error-free interview? I’d take the chance. Considering how big this problem has become; recent special prosecutor According to reports, any bad interview will cause a feeding frenzy in Washington, which will be given to President Biden. Even if the White House has confidence in Biden’s acumen, the risks are too great. And if Biden is in decline, it’s not at all the start of something unscripted.
A drifting government, a base of anger
But when you dig deeper into the polls and current political struggles, Silver’s prescription is truly groundbreaking.This is a government that cannot do that. even coordinates Top domestic policy priorities. Whether it’s the Israeli-Hamas conflict, Ukraine, or the immigration crisis, Team Biden’s policy seems to be to “hold out and hope for the best.”
Even a compliant interviewer would have to ask Mr. Biden where he stands and what he should do about the conflict between Israel and Hamas. Biden has an impossible choice. Progressive voters are outraged by the administration’s leanings toward Israel, and Democrats are generally out of sync with most Americans.
According to recent information, YouGov Benchmark, many Americans sympathize with Israel, at 36 percent, while 27 percent sympathize equally with Israel and the Palestinians, and 15 percent support the Palestinians. However, many Democrats (28%) and self-proclaimed liberals (31%) sympathize with the Palestinians. Israel leads independents by 11 points and resonates with a whopping 62% of Republicans.
To make matters worse, Biden’s policies are in trouble with his voting base: 41% of liberals think he supports Israel too much, while 33% think he supports Israel too much. ”, only 3% think it is “too low”. Among independents, 23% said it was “too much” and 43% said it was “an appropriate amount” or “too little.” Republicans support Israel by far (19% “too much” and 58% “just the right amount” or “too little”).
Biden is likely to face questions in other unpleasant areas as well, about which he has few answers. Illegal immigration is also an area of concern where policy is lacking, and the president’s approval rating is low among independents, with 23% approval and 60% disapproval. 32%, disapproval rate 59%). Even the Democratic Party has problems, with its approval rating 19 points lower than Biden’s overall rating. And immigration is no longer just a Republican issue. Independent voters rank this issue as their No. 3 issue.
Inflation remains the biggest issue for independents and Republicans, and Biden’s approval ratings are worse than overall ratings. He is trailing among independents with 27% approval and 59% disapproval, while among Republicans he has 12% approval and 87% disapproval.
The combination of these damaging numbers puts Mr. Biden against Mr. Trump, with 40% of independents favoring Mr. Trump and 31% favoring Mr. Biden. Promoting Biden in the YouGov poll test is the assumption that Democratic turnout will remain high. But that may not be guaranteed if Biden further infuriates the activist left.
Drifting, confused and lost
The bottom line is that a series of interviews, even sympathetic interviews, cannot and cannot resolve the Biden competency issue unless those interviews provide a satisfactory answer. It won’t solve anything if a steadfast Biden exacerbates divisions within the party or alienates essential independent voters.
Step one for the Biden administration is to end the policy drift and figure out where it’s headed. The Biden White House really has no choice and will have to seize the chance that fear of Trump outweighs progressive anger. In the midst of international turmoil and barely controlled borders, resoluteness is essential. But the administration’s only resolute stance is to blame all the misdeeds on the Republican Party.
No matter how you slice it, it’s not a silver bullet.
Dr. Keith Naughton is co-founder of Silent Majority Strategies, a public and regulatory affairs consulting firm. Norton is a former Pennsylvania political campaign consultant. Follow him on Twitter @KNaughton711.
Copyright 2024 Nexstar Media Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
