Simply put
- The $2 billion “Call Condor” option trade anticipates Bitcoin reaching $118,000 by December 2025, but no higher.
- Analysts believe the market hasn’t hit its true bottom yet, pointing to high implied volatility and negative skew.
- Key indicators of a “true low” include a decline in implied volatility, a return to contango, and a neutral skew.
BTC traders are sending mixed signals: they expect a rise but without a dramatic leap. The trade indicates that while a year-end rally could happen, it may be more gradual and cautious.
On Deribit, about 20,000 BTC were identified in Condor block trades, organized to settle between $100,000 and $118,000 by December 2025.
This strategy entails buying four call options with the same expiration but varying strike prices, typically used when investors foresee a rise but believe gains might be limited.
“The market hasn’t factored in the expected year-end rally,” said Jake Ostrovskis, an OTC trader, regarding the surge in long call condor trades.
Ostrovskis stated that the term structure will be crucial for timing the market’s low, suggesting that decreasing implied volatility and returning skew indicate a shift in stability.
Adam Chew, chief researcher at GreekLive, noted that the belief in hitting a new all-time high this quarter has vanished, as bearish trends seem to dominate.
Chu speculated that large long call orders could represent a “whale-driven repositioning” ahead of monthly expirations.
However, Sean Dawson from Derive mentioned that the market hasn’t met conditions for a bottom yet, as rising implied volatilities suggest traders are still seeking protection against uncertainty.
A rise in implied volatility shows expectations of larger future price shifts, indicating market unease.
Dawson explained that the current “backwardation”—where short-term volatility costs more than long-term—is often a sign of market distress. A move back to “contango” with high long-term implied volatility would signal stabilization.
Post-October 10 flash crash, Dawson noted a significant negative skew. While recovery has been seen, he suggested that it would take time for the skew to normalize, meaning bearish sentiment lingers.
Overall, these factors imply that professional traders foresee ongoing volatility and questions around a straightforward recovery.
Despite declines in major indexes, Chu mentioned that market panic hasn’t fully subsided, warning that the end of the year remains uncertain with high volatility expectations.
Dawson echoed this, forecasting Bitcoin to hover between $100,000 and $118,000 through 2025, potentially reaching over $120,000 into the following year.
Currently, Bitcoin is priced at $87,400, reflecting a 0.3% decline in the past 24 hours, according to CoinGecko data.
