For the first time in decades, it feels like the French Open men’s singles is truly competitive.
Rafael Nadal has dominated the tournament for 20 years.
Nadal has a 112-3 record at Roland Garros, winning 14 times between 2005 and 2022, but he’s soon to be 38 and has been battling injuries for the past two years.
Barring any unforeseen circumstances, this will be the Spaniard’s final French Open, but he is not expected to make a deep run, especially after facing fourth-ranked favourite Alexander Zverev in the first round.
And it’s not just Nadal’s status that benefits from this combination.
Novak Djokovic hasn’t been at his best in 2024, Carlos Alcaraz’s form has been inconsistent and Jannik Sinner is also battling injury after missing the first few months of the season.
All of this combines to make this one of the most chaotic French Open matches in some time, and it’s well worth a bet.
Most Valuable Favorites
Casper Ruud (12/1, DraftKings)
Ruud, ranked 7th in the world and a consecutive French Open finalist, seems to be a bit underrated in the Paris futures market. Ruud has been in good form on clay courts this season, winning in Barcelona, reaching the final in Monte Carlo and the final in Geneva. And he has the potential to beat anyone on clay courts.
With this history, we would expect Ruud’s price to be in the single digits, but a tough draw could bring the price down a bit.
This path gives you a good opportunity to root for a player who performs well at Roland Garros, as Ruud will face a tough opponent in the first round (likely against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the second round) and will likely face Djokovic in the quarterfinals.
Great buy
Daniil Medvedev (32/1, FanDuel)
The betting markets seem to believe that Medvedev’s record in the tournament makes it unlikely that he will win Roland Garros.
That would make sense if Medvedev had been rated one of the favorites to win, but considering he is the No. 4 player in the world and not an easy player to beat on clay, the numbers are ridiculous.
He has lost five times at Roland Garros, which is not good, but he reached the fourth round in 2022 and the quarterfinals in 2021, so he’s not just going to be a wimp on clay.
While most will point out that Medvedev is the underdog in this tournament, bettors should see this as a good opportunity to take a cheap bet on a player who has won a Grand Slam and reached five other finals.
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Live Longshot
Hubert Hurkacz (100/1, FanDuel)
Hurkacz is ranked ninth in the world but is unlikely to have any support in the Roland Garros betting markets, even with triple-digit odds.
His 6-6 record and three first-round losses at the French Open aren’t great, but he did reach the fourth round in 2022 and the third round in 2023.
Those aren’t spectacular results yet, but when combined with his 11-3 record on dirt this season, it shows he’s a player on the rise on the dirt.
But more importantly, Hurkacz got a fantastic draw.
His path to the quarterfinals will likely require him beating Sinner, but Sinner’s injury concerns mean there’s no guarantee he’ll be there when he takes on Hurkacz next week.
