This is a week on the PGA Tour where perspective matters.
The Rocket Mortgage Classic is held after two major tournaments and the U.S. Open, so it doesn’t have a strong field.
Many bettors take a week off or neglect their selections.
But this is an opportunity for us.
If you put in the effort and research like you do every week, you might find something that isn’t accounted for in the betting market.
This week’s event will be held at the Detroit Golf Club, a 7,370-yard, par-72 course.
Reports suggest the course is a little longer than shown on the scorecard.
It’s already softening and rain is in the forecast.
If a golfer can’t get the ball rolling on their drive, the course will be longer and the fairways will be wider.
This was already a good spot for the Bombers, but the conditions this week should make it even better.
Detroit Golf Club has been one of the easiest courses on tour for the past five years.
The average winning score during this period is 23 under par, so expect plenty of birdies this week.
And predictions suggest the winning score could be 30 under par.
The fairways are wide and the greens, although small (5,150 square feet), are easy to hit. In 2023, 73% of the field reached the greens in regulation.
This makes putting more important and scrambling less important.
This week, let’s keep it simple and focus on long drivers, good iron players and golfers who can make big plays with the putter.
Here are my best bets (odds via BetMGM):
Maverick McNealy (28/1, FanDuel)
McNealy has three top-10 finishes already this year and hasn’t missed a cut since January.
He has been great off the tee, around the greens and with his putting.
In fact, he finished in the top 20 in all three strokes gained categories in the competition.
However, his iron play prevented him from being in contention for the win, but it seems he has found some solutions in that regard.
He has gained about eight strokes on his approach in the past five events.
I like the nature of his game and the fact that he has already had two good results in this tournament (T21 and T8).
Stefan Jaeger (28/1, BetMGM)
Yeager won his first PGA Tour event earlier this year on a course similar to the Detroit Golf Club.
Over the past few years, he’s gone from being one of the worst drivers on the tour to being one of the best.
He also hits the ball farther and straighter off the tee.
He has a great approach and is consistently gaining strokes around the greens.
His putting has slipped a bit, but he’s still been able to produce quality results in a much stronger field than this time around.
He has finished T9 and T5 in this event the past two years.
Do you bet on golf?
Taylor Pendris (28/1, Bet365)
I was able to win this bet at 45/1 early on Monday morning, but I still think odds of 28/1 are a good bet.
Like Yeager, Pendris also won his first career race on a long, easy course earlier this year.
He has one of the longest driving distances in the field and is currently riding a hot putter.
He has gained strokes on the greens in 14 of his last 15 tournaments and has gained 16 or more strokes putting in his last four tournaments alone.
Like my first two choices, Pendrith has also had success on this course in the past, finishing second to Tony Finau in 2022 and T14 last year.
