newYou can now listen to Fox News articles.
Unlike the nail biters of the past few years, the winner of the first presidential race in 2024 was not much of a contest. As expected, former President Donald Trump won the Iowa caucuses by a landslide. The race was declared just 30 minutes after it started.
There was no doubt about the result. Sometime last fall, wall street journal Trump received nearly 60 percent of the vote, giving him a 30-point victory Monday night, according to polls.
New Hampshire's first national primary, just seven days away, is expected to play out differently, with polls showing it to be more competitive.
Trump wins big in Iowa; DeSantis beats Haley to second place in first Republican presidential nomination race
Trump had a 33-point lead in the polls in Iowa, according to Real Clear Politics. Average – Close to the final number.in new hampshire, the difference is less than half that, leaving Trump and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley with just 14 percentage points. With former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie recently withdrawing from the race, he maintains a strong third place in the Granite State, where voters are now paying attention.
Here are three takeaways from Iowa that could further shape New Hampshire's outlook.
First, continuous selection of fields
One of the untold stories of the 2024 contest is the rapid pace of consolidation. In 2016, the Iowa Republican caucus had nine strong candidates vying for the award. In 2024, three candidates won more than 90 percent of the vote in Iowa.
Technology entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy's decision to resign on Monday night leaves only three candidates in the race for second place.
DeSantis beats Haley to finish second in Iowa after Trump's historic caucus victory
After leaving most of his chips in the Hawkeye State, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis entered Iowa, questioning his own viability. Finishing second, he told supporters, “I got my ticket out of Iowa.”
But unlike in Iowa, where his 99-county “full grassland” tour and support from the state's popular Republican governor, Kim Reynolds, drew attention, DeSantis has no institutional advantage in New Hampshire.
Vivek Ramaswamy ends presidential bid after Iowa caucuses
His poll numbers are in the single digits. DeSantis had already caused a stir when he previously announced plans to head directly to South Carolina after Iowa instead of New Hampshire.
Second, don't underestimate the unique nature of New Hampshire's electorate.
The largest voting group (40%) is unregistered and does not belong to either political party. Not only can these independents vote in the Republican primary, they have multiple reasons to do so courtesy of President Biden.
First, in New Hampshire, where Mr. Biden had an impressive lead over Mr. Trump, Mr. Biden's employment approval rating remains in the low 40% range. Second, he is not even on the Democratic ballot because of his stubborn refusal to honor the state's first honor in the state's primary tradition. If you're an independent voter who wants to make a difference in his 2024 campaign, there's nothing you can do on the Democratic side. On the Republican side, the opposite is true.
Finally, there is Iowa's bleak record in picking presidential winners.
Haley came under fire from DeSantis when she told a group of voters in New Hampshire that she would “correct” the results in Iowa, but her comments are backed up by recent history. Remember the last three winners of the Iowa caucuses: President Mike Huckabee, President Rick Santorum, and President Ted Cruz? It's not even in the history books.
For more FOX News opinions, click here
To find the last winner of the nomination in the Iowa Republican caucuses, you have to go back nearly a quarter of a century to 2000.
Make no mistake, former President Trump remains the clear frontrunner for the Republican nomination. Monday night's win may not have been surprising, but it still broke records.
CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APP
It's a different story when it comes to head-to-head races, a situation Trump never faced in the 2016 campaign, where he always benefited from a vast and divided playing field.
New Hampshire will have a lot to say about the likelihood of that scenario occurring, or whether the locomotive that left the Iowa station became a runaway train.
Click here to read more about Colin Reid
