With the presidential race in the Wolverine State set to be fierce leading up to the November election, a typically niche group may have the final say.
this is, American Association of Retired Persons Survey of 1,382 people Michigan Voters In a survey conducted between August 7 and August 11, one in six (16%) voters aged 50 and over said they were “a swing voter – a group large enough to influence a statewide election.”
This means voters might choose former President Donald Trump for president and Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin for the Senate, or they might choose Republican Mike Rogers for the Senate and Vice President Kamala Harris for the White House.
Looking at all the candidates, Trump has a slight lead over Harris, 45% to 43%, with Robert Kennedy Jr. at 6% and other minor candidates combined at 2% and 4% undecided.
Both candidates have approval ratings above 90 percent for their respective parties, suggesting their bases are united as Labor Day and the start of the traditional general election campaign are in sight.
The race between the two is even tighter, with Trump and Harris each receiving 48%.
In this context, where that tiny fraction of undecided seniors go is especially important for the two major party campaigns, given the rapid changes in the data.
Among all candidates, Trump leads Harris 46% to 44% among voters over 50, and is particularly strong among those over 65, 48% to 42%, but there are divergences in views of the candidates among older voters.
Black voters and women appear to be solidly supporting Harris.
Of the former (the voters Trump needs to win the state), only 6% support Trump, while 84% support Harris. Other Michigan polls have shown Trump’s support to be weaker among African-American voters; in the WDIV poll, Trump received no black support at all. The AARP poll used an additional oversample of 312 black voters over the age of 50 to give its numbers more weight.
While women are not particularly overrepresented in the sample here, women across age groups are solidly supportive of Harris, with 51% of women overall and 50% of seniors supporting her, compared to Trump’s below 40% in both cases.
Meanwhile, men and white voters support Trump.
The former president leads Harris by 20 points among all men (54% to 34%) and 53% to 36% among those over 50. Trump also leads by 14 points among white voters over 50 (52% to 38%).
Michiganders may support Trump for president, but the poll suggests his support may not carry over to the House race. Democrat Slotkin holds a three-point lead over Rogers, 47% to 44%, with 8% undecided. The ethnic and gender divisions in the Senate race are similar to those seen among the top candidates.
Not surprisingly, AARP argues that the secret to winning over motivated voters is to listen to their concerns and promise to act accordingly.
“Michigan voters over 50 are the largest voting demographic in the state and could determine which candidate wins or loses this election,” said Paula Cunningham, AARP Michigan president. “If candidates want to win, they’ll need to pay attention to the issues that matter to voters over 50, from protecting Social Security to helping family caregivers who are more likely to be motivated to vote in November.”
