The first Western Conference semifinal series will feature a battle between the Nuggets and Timberwolves, two teams who met in the first round of last season’s playoffs.
But this series should be much more competitive than last year’s series, which Denver won in five games en route to the NBA title.
Minnesota swept the No. 6 seed Suns in the first round without breaking a sweat. Anthony Edwards put together two legendary road performances, averaging 38 points, 9 rebounds, 5.5 assists, and 2.5 stock (steals and blocks) on 54/44/86 shooting splits.
Meanwhile, Denver made it out of the first round in just five games, even though the Lakers led most of the time throughout the series. Jamal Murray hit two game-winning shots to advance the Nuggets to the semifinals.
Can they compete in a historic series with these two teams? Let’s break down Game 1 on Saturday in Denver.
Timberwolves vs Nuggets odds
| team | spread | money line | total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Timberwolves | +4.5 (-115) | +154 | o207.5 (-110) |
| nugget | -4.5 (-105) | -185 | u207.5 (-110) |
Timberwolves vs Nuggets prediction
(7 p.m. ET, TNT)
In some ways, this is an unfavorable second-round matchup for the Nuggets, who will be facing the Minnesota Timberwolves, who boast one of the top defenses in the league.
First, Minnesota has several players who can throw to Murray, including Edwards, Nickell-Alexander-Walker and Jaden McDaniels. McDaniels, in particular, could be an interesting player to use against Murray. Keep him away from the walls he might hit!
The Timberwolves could also lock up Karl-Anthony Towns with Jokic and Gobert with Aaron Gordon, who would likely spend most of his time at the dunker spot or corner. That would allow Gobert to walk around and protect the rim.
Gobert, KAT, and Naz Reid can turn off Jokic and give him a different look defensively. It won’t stop him, but it might at least slow him down a little. This is perhaps most important considering the Timberwolves are not a great offensive team by any stretch of the imagination.
Additionally, Minnesota can sometimes hide Mike Conley Jr. behind Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and if he struggles, Alexander-Walker can sub in, which brings us to our next point: bench disparity. Connect.
Depth could cause some problems for the Nuggets throughout this series. In fact, Minnesota ranks second in bench net rating, while Denver only ranks 22nd.
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Denver will adjust to Minnesota’s size and depth, but it may be too much to handle in Game 1, especially if they get into foul trouble.
The Timberwolves should keep this close on defense. Even if Murray had another special performance in the fourth quarter, 4.5 points would be too many to match Denver.
