President Trump once claimed that it could do that Complete the Russian Ukraine War within 24 hours。 It was unreasonable. Recently, people close to him offered: Longer timelineMeasured on a monthly basis. It turns out that it is a difficult task. A wide groove separates the party.
If Mr. Trump seriously considers a permanent reconciliation brokerage, he will need an influence on the two.
Almost three years have passed since Russia began a full invasion of Ukraine, and the dispute has evolved into a bloody exhaustion battle. The Russian army gained momentum in 2024, but it only increased 1,600 square miles It is less than one percent of Ukraine territory. Today's Russian army is about a total 18 % of Ukraine2022 decreased.
Ukraine's opinion polls have increasedNegotiation supportHowever, quite a few Ukrainians are still opposing territory concessions. At the end of 2024, Ukraine's President Walodimill Zelensky wasAccept the ceasefireAt least you will temporarily lose a part of the territory. He linked it to NATO member to protect the rest of Ukraine from further Russian invasion.
Russia's President Vladimir Putin has continued to war, but is expected to increase the number of victims. About 800,000 According to some estimates. In addition, Russia The economy is stressedInflation is over 9 %, and the risk of stagflation is increasing. Kremlin is by Putin I'm ready to meet Trump. Perhaps the Russian Ukrainian War will be his highest priority.
Expectations are growing that the administration will be seriously working towards the end of the battle since President Trump's election. The agreement will be determined by how much territory the Ukraine must cede and what kind of security measures are taken.
The number of territories that Ukraine needs to abandon, and the stronger the security, the greater the prospect that the agreement is permanent, and the mediation in the United States will be a victory of Trump diplomacy. He may even be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize he wants.
On the other hand, a reconciliation for the United States will require Kiev to quote considerable territory with weak warranty, and Ukraine will remain vulnerable to future Russian attacks. Few people consider this as a victory of US diplomacy.
Seriously negotiating Putin and Zelenceky requires the influence of President Trump. In consideration of Kiev's needs for US weapons, ammunition, and financial support, he has already had sufficient relationships with Ukraine leaders. Zelenceky seems to be responsible for serious talks since November.
Putin, on the other hand, has issued an extreme demand for Russia in 2022, and since then, even when the Russian army has withdrawn on the battlefield, it has undertaken more severe conditions. In order for Russian leaders to leave their current standpoint, it will be necessary to have a powerful promotion, but it will not be accepted by the Ukrainian people, and it will need to be expected to accept.
Trump needs to build an influence on the cremlin. First, he should request the parliament a military support bill for Ukraine of $ 40 to 50 billion. With his support, it will be easily passed by the House of Representatives. Most of the funds will be spent in the United States in any of the latest new weapons for Ukraine for Ukraine to replace the U.S. Army, or in any of the contracts with U.S. defensive companies for Ukraine. 。
Second, President Trump should cooperate with allies to strengthen sanctions and further strain the Russian economy. One way is to close the western technology that makes Russia penetrate the missing holes. The second method is that Russian petroleums can be transported by western insurance only when Russian oil is sold for $ 60 per barrel, and the price is one barrel per barrel. It is to lower it to $ 45. Lower prices still exceed Russia's production costs, so Russia will continue to sell even if the income is reduced.
Third, President Trump should cooperate with the G7 and European countries to seize about $ 300 billion in the Central Bank of the Central Bank of the Russia and transfer to Ukraine's military and reconstruction needs. Currently, the interests of these assets support Kiev for $ 50 billion. Kremlin doesn't like it, but he doesn't want Ukraine to access the entire amount. This will give the Russian side to negotiate quickly to secure a reconciliation before the relocation is performed.
These measures need to face Putin with sincerity, or face higher military, economic and political costs, or more, to Putin. It will indicate something. These measures will also reveal that President Trump intends to take a hard -line posture, rather than a aggressive press, as part of the Russian government expects. These actions need to overcome the prominent substantive differences, but successful will be the best position for President Trump in negotiations that greatly enhance their position and influence on the world stage.
Stanford University International Security Center and Brookings Research Institute Steven Paifer is a former Ukrainian Ambassador to Ukraine.
