Gold Price Prediction
Today, Praveen Singh, a senior analyst at Mirae Asset Sharekhan, noted that rising geopolitical tensions have pushed gold prices to all-time highs. Here’s an outlook on gold prices:
Gold Performance
- For the week ending January 16, spot gold increased almost 2%, closing at $4,595. This rise followed a significant 4.6% jump in the week ending January 9.
- On January 17, gold peaked at a record $4,690 on January 19, driven by demand for safe-haven assets after the U.S. president threatened 10% tariffs on several EU countries starting February 1.
- Currently, gold is trading at $4,672, up 1.67% for the day.
ETF and COMEX Gold Stocks
- As of January 16, global gold ETF holdings reached 99.86 million ounces, marking the highest level since August 2022 and showing a nearly 1% increase year-to-date.
- COMEX gold inventory stands at 18.86 million ounces, which is up from a recent low but still down over 22% from the all-time high of 24.25 million ounces recorded on April 7.
Dollar Index and Yield
The U.S. dollar index dropped approximately 0.15% to 99.08 on January 19 after three weeks of increases. Yields on two-year and 10-year notes rose nearly 2% last week, prompted by uncertainty over the appointment of Kevin Hassett, a supporter of low interest rates.
Note that the U.S. bond market was closed on January 19 for Martin Luther King Jr. Day.
Trade and Customs
Recently, President Trump threatened new tariffs on eight EU countries, intensifying discussions among NATO allies. If these tariffs are enacted, they will rise to 25% from June 1 until an agreement regarding Greenland is reached.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent remarked that Europe lacks the capability to ensure Greenland’s security. The IMF’s Kristalina Georgieva indicated it’s too early to assess the economic implications of the tensions, though they may hinder growth.
On January 19, EU ambassadors convened to discuss potential responses, considering tariffs on $108 billion worth of U.S. goods. An emergency summit among EU leaders is scheduled for Thursday.
The EU is contemplating using measures to counteract coercive trade practices, which could entail new fees on American imports and restrictions on U.S. investments.
U.S. Supreme Court Rulings on Tariffs
A ruling from the U.S. Supreme Court regarding some of President Trump’s earlier tariffs may arrive as soon as Tuesday.
Annual World Economic Forum Held in Davos
During this week’s World Economic Forum in Davos, President Trump is expected to discuss a new homeownership strategy that would allow Americans to withdraw funds from their 401(k) accounts for down payments.
According to a Bloomberg survey, respondents highlighted “geo-economic conflict” and “state-based armed conflict” as major risks to global conditions by 2026. U.S. officials are set to emphasize economic growth, homeownership, and peace during their discussions at WEF.
Summary of Data
Recent Chinese data revealed a 4.5% annualized growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2025, slightly surpassing expectations. However, retail sales in December fell to the lowest in three years, and industrial production also came in below projections.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Consumer Price Index for December showed subdued results—annual CPI rose by 2.7%, in line with forecasts. Yet, PPI data exceeded expectations.
Industrial production increased by 0.4% in December, surpassing predictions of 0.1%.
Future Data
This week’s key U.S. data includes Final Q3 GDP (January 22), Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (January 22), and the Consumer Sentiment Index (January 23). Investors will monitor CPI data from both the euro area and the UK closely as well.
Gold Price Outlook
The recent geopolitical tensions over Greenland have unexpectedly bolstered gold prices. Concerns surrounding global trade and the economy continue to escalate. Normally, these factors might put pressure on gold due to a strengthening dollar and easing tensions elsewhere. Still, the upcoming U.S. Supreme Court decision on tariffs might create short-term volatility, as some tariffs may lack legal backing.
The potential extension of tariff deadlines by President Trump could also weigh on gold values. Spot gold might test resistance around $4,750, depending on U.S.-EU tariff tensions. However, buyers should remain cautious and consider appropriate stop-loss strategies, with support levels at $4,608 and $4,560.
Silver Outlook
Physical silver prices rose more than 12% for the week ending January 16, reaching $89.94. Currently priced at roughly $104 per ounce on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, silver may see its market disrupted due to proposed U.S. tariffs on the EU.
Spot silver is at $94.42, increasing nearly 5% today. If it can maintain above the $94 mark, it could test resistance levels between $98 and $100. Like gold, setting a careful stop-loss is essential, with support at $90 and $86.
