Today’s Gold Price Prediction

Interest rates are anticipated to rise in the upcoming months. Praveen Singh, a senior analyst at Mirae Asset Sharekhan, suggests that investors might find it more beneficial to buy gold during dips rather than chase after rallies. Analysts echo this perspective, offering insights into the gold market and crucial levels for investors to watch.

Gold Performance

• As of now, Spot Gold is trading at $3,682, showing a slight increase of about 1%. Earlier that day, it hit a new high of $3,685, partially influenced by a disappointing employment report revealing a significant revision impacting 911,000 jobs over the past year.
• In the week that ended September 12th, Spot Gold recorded a weekly gain of 1.58%, closing at $3,643, marking its fourth consecutive week of increases.

Data Round Up

• The latest data from China was not promising. Retail sales dipped to below 3.4% in August, while fixed asset investment growth slowed to 0.5% in the first eight months of the year. Additionally, industrial production saw its slowest growth since August 2024, coming in at 5.2% against expectations of 5.6%.
• The EU’s commodity trade surplus with the US dropped from €11.2 billion in June to just €100,000 in July.
• The US Empire Manufacturing index for September showed a reading of -8.70, significantly worse than the predicted 5, marking the lowest score since June.

Trade and Tariffs

• Talks between US and Chinese representatives continued as they dealt with issues concerning trade, national security, and, quite notably, TikTok. Speculation is rising about a potential meeting between Trump and Xi in October. The Chinese delegation will be stationed in Madrid until September 17th.
• Reports indicate that a TikTok agreement has been reached, and a phone call between Xi and Trump might occur on September 19th.
• Additionally, China has initiated anti-dumping investigations on certain US chips, especially those used in smartphones and electric vehicles.
• India and the US will engage in trade discussions in New Delhi on September 16th to address ongoing trade issues.

US Dollar Index and Yield

• The US Dollar index sat at 97.30, showing a decrease of roughly 0.30%. This dip occurred ahead of a crucial monetary policy decision from the Federal Reserve. Other major central banks, including the Bank of England and the Bank of Canada, will also announce their policies this week.
• The MSCI Emerging Market Currency Index has increased by about 0.20%.
• Meanwhile, the US yield for two-year bonds decreased by 2 basis points to 3.53%.

Thai Authorities and Currency Valuation

• Thai officials are currently contemplating measures regarding the buying and selling of gold to respond to this year’s currency rally.

Gold Surpassing Previous Records

• Inflation-adjusted gold prices have now exceeded the previous record high of $850, originally set back in January 1980.

Gold ETF Holdings

• As of September 12, global gold ETF holdings reached 94.61 million ounces, marking an increase for the second week in a row.
• This represents the highest level since November 2022, with gold ETF holdings up by 365 tons, or 14.19% year-to-date.

Fitch Ratings and France’s Credit Rating

• Fitch Ratings has downgraded France’s sovereign credit rating from “aa-” to “a+” with a stable outlook, citing rising political polarization as a factor that may lead to further delays in financial integration.

Looking Ahead

• Key economic data from the eurozone, including the Zew survey expectations for September and industrial production for July, is forthcoming. The UK’s employment report for July will also be released today.
• In the US, valuable data will include retail sales and industrial production figures for August, along with the NAHB Housing Market Index for September.

Gold Price Outlook

• This week is pivotal as the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy announcement occurs on September 17th. Markets expect a potential rate cut of 50 bps, though some foresee a possibility of a 25 bps reduction that might adjust rates to a 4.25%-4.50% range.
• Stronger-than-expected retail sales data could lead to profit-taking among investors.
• A hawkish cut of 25 bps could result in a minor dip for gold prices; however, support levels are expected to hold strong despite any turbulence in the US labor market.
• Gold prices might rise to $3,800 (Rs 134,000) in the coming months, with support levels at $3,600 (Rs 107,900), $3,550 (Rs 106,400), and $3,500 (Rs 104,900). The initial resistance is around $3,700 (Rs 110,900).
• Overall, buying during dips is considered wiser than chasing current prices.

(Disclaimer: The insights and recommendations on stock markets and other assets provided by experts are personal opinions and do not reflect the views of any specific entity.)