Congress’ new $60 billion aid package is unlikely to move the needle on Ukraine’s war with Russia, experts told the Daily Caller News Foundation.
The House of Representatives overwhelmingly voted on Saturday to pass a $60.8 billion bill aimed at boosting Ukraine’s war effort and replenishing U.S. stockpiles, and the Pentagon reportedly said the bill would ultimately pass. Plans are reportedly being quickly drawn up to deploy tactical vehicles, armored personnel carriers, and missiles to Kiev in the event of an attack. Signed by President Joe Biden. according to Go to Politico. But given the lack of a final strategy to end the war and Ukraine’s failure to fight back in the face of growing Russian forces, this aid may help shore up Kiev’s defenses for some time. But it is unlikely to come close to a military victory, a former American said. officials and defense experts told DCNF. (Related: House intruded into pro-Ukrainian chants during foreign aid vote)
“Recent U.S. aid itself is not zero-sum, and it is unlikely that it will trigger a turning point in war. But if used properly, the money should be useful for a period of time,” said former White House senior communications adviser and national security adviser. Michael Bars, a conference official, told DCNF. “It is unfortunate that an additional $60 billion for U.S. border security, which the Chairman had long conditioned on additional support for Ukraine, was leaked without a penny being paid.”
House Speaker Mike Johnson, who spearheaded the bill’s creation and passage, has previously argued that future aid to Ukraine must be tied to border security. Johnson ultimately scrapped that idea and helped pass the Ukraine bill alone, drawing the ire of several Republican lawmakers.
This is the U.S. House of Representatives, under the direction of Speaker Mike Johnson. Democrats are celebrating his complete surrender without any victory in securing the border. #MTV pic.twitter.com/TtaIgnX9eg
— Thomas Massie (@RepThomasMassie) April 20, 2024
“I don’t think there will be enough funding in this bill or in any larger bill for Ukraine to achieve its goal of retaking all of its territory or to launch a sustained offensive,” Defense Priorities Policy said. Director Benjamin Friedman said. he told DCNF. “So, in a sense, it is beyond their comprehension to advance, even if we give them more weapons. This aid will help them hold the line and allow Russia to advance in earnest. So I think it’s a little unclear how dire things are for Ukraine.”
Since the war with Russia began in February 2022, Ukraine has received approximately $73 billion in aid from the United States alone, including military and economic aid. Ukraine has exhausted existing aid but has been unable to advance into territory in a counterattack. operation.
Top Shot – A Ukrainian soldier fires a rocket launcher during a military training exercise in the Kharkov region on May 1, 2023, during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. (Photo by DIMITAR DILKOFF/AFP via Getty Images)
Ukraine is suffering from shortages of ammunition and weapons as well as human resources, with U.S. officials previously announcing it had lost an estimated 70,000 soldiers as of December. Said New York Times. The Ukrainian army suffered a significant blow during this period. withdrawal of Avdiivka In eastern Ukraine, human resources were in short supply as Russian troops advanced and took control of cities.
President Zelenskiy is lowering draft standards to increase mobilization, but even with the addition of munitions, it may be too late to make a difference now, says Michael, a senior fellow at Defense Priorities and a former CIA official. Dimino told DCNF.
“It’s a little too little, too late,” Dimino told DCNF. “Even if we mobilized those people now, we’re still 30 points behind at the moment…If President Zelenskyy wanted to do the right thing, he should have made the decision at this point two or three years ago.”
TOP SHOT – People attend the funeral of Volodymyr Nestor, a Ukrainian soldier killed in battle with Russian troops, at a cemetery in Lviv on May 16, 2023, during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. (Photo Credit: YURIY DYACHYSHYN/AFP) (Photo Credit: YURIY DYACHYSHYN/AFP, Getty Images)
Further complicating matters is that Russia’s military-industrial complex is operating at full capacity and rapidly producing armaments despite severe sanctions from Western countries. Despite the Russian military suffering heavy personnel losses, recovered It has returned to pre-war levels and is growing at a much faster rate than Ukraine, Gen. Christopher Cavoli, commander of U.S. European Command, warned Congress last week. (Related: NBC host presses Zelenskiy on Ukraine war timeline after House passes more funding)
“Russia, with an economy that has a reputation for being able to withstand sanctions, is prepared for the long game and will continue to insist on territorial concessions from Ukraine,” Bars told DCNF. “This will likely require the United States to provide even more assistance in the future as part of a protracted conflict.”
Russia is cooperating more economically with its Western adversaries, including China, Moscow’s largest trading partner as of 2024, to alleviate some of the weight of sanctions. Russia is also deepening military cooperation with Iran and North Korea, which are also burdened by sanctions.
If passed, the new Ukraine aid package would provide Kiev with about $14 billion to directly purchase arms and ammunition through the Pentagon’s Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative. At least $13.4 billion would be earmarked to replenish the U.S. arms stockpile and could be transferred to foreign allies through the president’s withdrawal authority.
The package would provide about $10 billion in economic loans that could eventually be completely forgiven by the president.
WASHINGTON DC – DECEMBER 12: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and US President Joe Biden hold a press conference at the Indian Treaty Room in the Eisenhower Executive Office Building on December 12, 2023 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
“The lending system itself is innovative and allows for much-needed oversight. Otherwise, it would just be a grant without any oversight,” Johnson’s office said. told the DCNF on Monday. “Currently, every dollar sent to Ukraine in aid is a loan. The rest of the money goes to our national security and replenishes our reserves.”
Johnson’s office told DCNF that “the loan program is tiered and cannot be forgiven all immediately or at once.” “The Congressional review process places intense scrutiny on the president’s ability to forgive loans.”
Dimino told the DCNF that he is not opposed to sending more military aid to Ukraine as long as it is tied to a cohesive war strategy, but he feels that so far it has not been offered by the Biden administration or its allies in Congress. He said he was there.
“I don’t really care if people are in favor of aid or not. What I care about is, what is the winning theory? I don’t think right now this current administration has a winning theory. I would like to argue that there is no,” Dimino told DCNF. “President Biden mentioned Ukraine for two minutes at the beginning of his State of the Union address and said, ‘Putin is bad and democracy is important.'” That’s great, and we can probably all agree with that. . But that’s not a strategy for winning wars. It’s not actually discussing the tactical realities on the ground. ”
“$50 billion, $60 billion, $10 billion, it doesn’t matter. It has to be tied to strategy and achievable goals,” Dimino told DCNF. “It has to be a realistic goal. And I would argue that regaining 100% of Ukrainian territory is not really a feasible military goal at this point.”
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