Vote tracking has long propped up weak Democratic candidates, but Republicans have adopted and perfected the strategy, and it could immediately benefit former President Donald Trump in 2024, says Turning Point Action's Tyler Bowyer. he said. Breitbart News Saturday Host Matt Boyle.
Bowyer, a former Arizona Republican national committee member who is leading Turning Point Action's vote-tracking efforts, said the biggest difference between the 2020 and 2024 elections is that Republicans may not have voted in 2016. He said his focus in 2024 is to eliminate low-propensity voters. Or 2020 – an area where Democrats have vastly outperformed Republicans in the past.
“The fact is, we're ahead of the Democrats right now,” Bowyer told Boyle. “Apparently, the data came back today and it looks like it's probably as big as 5-to-1 in low-propensity voters in Arizona. So we feel pretty good about where we're at.”
Mr. Bowyer described Turning Point Action's “Moneyball” strategy, adapting and perfecting a strategy that Democrats have used for years to “chase the vote” through coordinated efforts.
“We have hundreds and thousands of volunteers in the field… employing this exact same tactic: identifying low-propensity voters, getting them to the polls first, voting early. “We want to make sure we get their votes,” he said.
Ballot harvesting is illegal in Arizona, but the state's long history of accepting early voting by mail positions the state as ground zero for chasing votes, and Republicans stand to benefit from adopting this strategy. We are in a unique situation where we can. He previously told Breitbart News that his goal was to increase the Republican vote by more than 150,000 votes in Arizona alone. This is about 5 percentage points higher than in 2020, when Trump received 1,661,686 votes.
“In some states like Nevada and Michigan and obviously California and other places, you can ruthlessly collect votes,” he said. “In most states, this is illegal, so you have to do what's called tracking voting… There's a number between registration and location that can be taken to effectively track those votes. There are different tactics and then they pounce on it. That's why Arizona was targeted.”
He continued, “It will be possible to run the Moneyball equation, which statistically identifies how many parties are needed to be able to chase that number of votes.'' How much sex? We have basically adopted the same strategy.”
Bowyer analyzed Arizona's numbers and detailed the world of people who fit into the low-trend world Turning Point Action has identified.
“In the (Arizona) election, you're going to have 3.5 million people voting somewhere in that ballpark,” he said. “So, how you look at this is, OK, what does 1%, 10% look like in that grand scheme of things? … 10% of 3.5 million, you think you're going to land somewhere in between. I am. [300,000] 350,000 voters – ironically, that's about the number of people who have cast a ballot in Arizona so far. And your goal should be how to influence the rest of the people who don't vote. ”
Bowyer added, “In most elections, you're going to have a strong 60 to 70 percent of voters in any state. The left is really aggressively going after that extra 10 percent, and that's how they're chasing votes. They identified who the top 10% of people who don't vote are and why they don't vote. Well, some people may not believe in the system. They think their votes don't matter. They get busy, they get sick, they get old, they're on their deathbeds, they're hospitalized, they travel.”
Another reason voters are staying home, not immediately obvious, is that it is difficult to positively identify groups of voters. “On any given day, about a quarter of people have some sort of bad day,” Bowyer says. “And just imagine, you wake up on election day and there are 15 to 25 percent of people who just aren't voting because they're having a bad day.”
Although difficult, Turning Point Action has a strategy for reaching voters in states like Arizona.
“So if you create a concierge type system where you can track the ballots, you can add an additional percentage, like 2, 3, 4, 5 percent, to compensate for the vulnerability of the campaign,” he said. . .
Voting is chasing swings in both directions, he warned. The effectiveness of this strategy of compensating for weak candidates could increase support for the Democratic Party in 2024, just as it did in 2020.
“Obviously Joe Biden wasn't the greatest campaigner on the planet,” Bowyer said. “They hid him. They had the same plan for Kamala. It didn't work, so they had to force her out now. But they didn't scare her away. So how they make up for the votes and people that they're alienating, they hunt down people who are less likely to align with their vote, so what we've done is effectively the same thing. is.”
Bowyer dug deeper into Arizona's grim numbers and demonstrated how a large-scale vote-tracking operation could help President Trump.
“You can basically add an extra percentage for every 35,000 votes,” he said. Using 30,000 voters for mathematical simplicity, Bowyer said: Trump is leading in the polls, let's just say 2-3% in the polls, but if you're going after another 5%, logically, you're probably not going to get all of those votes. But you can earn it. You'll probably win and land somewhere between 5-8%.
He said Democrats also know these numbers. “So when you look at the polls and see, oh, Kamala is down 2 percentage points, well, that's surmountable. Right now in Wisconsin, for example, it's surmountable. We know we can track it across groups. If [60,000] Up to 70,000 additional votes, this is where the Moneyball equation comes into play. You have to go, okay, have we isolated who those voters are? Can you get rid of them? And if we do, will the result be what we want? And I think we're on that trajectory. ”
Bowyer said he is optimistic about the outcome of the election given the success of Turning Point Action's voting results so far.
In Arizona, “As of yesterday, Democrats outnumbered Democrats by about 4 to 1 in low-propensity votes submitted, most of whom have never voted or have neglected to vote in the past. ” he said. This is unprecedented; it hasn't happened in any other state in the country.”
In 2020, he said, “with 19 or 20 days left, Republicans were down about 20% in early voting compared to Democrats.” As of today, we're at 10 percent, and yesterday we were 12 percent ahead of Democrats. Voter turnout far exceeded the nearly 30-point change compared to 2020. ”
Bowyer called these numbers “dire” for Democrats, telling Boyle, “The most under-reported, untold story so far in this election is that Democrats won in almost every state. We are behind by more than double digits,” he said. But in Arizona, they're down nearly 25-30 points from where they were in 2020. This is a big change. ”
He encouraged listeners interested in joining Turning Point Action's efforts to visit tpaction.com to learn more about volunteering and donating.
“Our Commit 100 program mobilizes volunteers and paid people to collect 100 votes in Arizona, Wisconsin and other states,” Bowyer said. Opportunities exist for remote and on-site involvement, and Turning Point Action sometimes places volunteers in hotel rooms, Bowyer said.
“It's going well. Please join us. This is our last chance, our last stand for America, and we need your help in Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia and other places,” he said. said.
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Bradley Jay is Breitbart News' Capitol Hill correspondent. Follow him on X/Twitter. @BradleyAJay.
