Unusually, but undeniably, the starting rotation market is easily led by a pitcher who has already logged nearly twice the number of innings in MLB history. White Sox relief pitcher-turned-starter Garrett Crochette is the ace of the worst team in baseball and the envy of the Yankees, Dodgers, Orioles, Padres and pretty much any other championship contender. And it makes sense: He’s probably the only true No. 1 starting pitcher.
Crochette leads the AL with 141 strikeouts and a 2.37 FIP, good for a 3.9 WAR (third in the MLB in a division led by fellow former reliever Seth Lugo). But there’s one big question: How many more innings can Crochette pitch in 2024? There are serious questions. The former setup man, who never threw more than 54¹/₃ innings in MLB, is on pace to throw about 200.
(The Yankees like Crochette a lot. But as with their negotiations regarding former Red Sox star Dylan Cease, they don’t appear willing to part with power-speed outfielder Spencer Jones, which could be a sticking point, assuming he remains a South Side target.)
As for the innings issue, a team with a big lead like the Dodgers could look at Crochet carefully before releasing him in October. Some teams could move him back to being a primary reliever, while others could believe that’s where he’s meant to be and let him pitch at full strength. One interested executive who supports keeping him in the rotation argues that the innings limit is a scam.
That executive isn’t alone, but of course Crochet’s camp isn’t going to allow a acquiring team to employ a former first-round pick who had Tommy John surgery in 2022 on an indefinite basis and jeopardize his future without some sort of security (i.e. a contract extension).
As USA Today’s Bob Nightingale reports, the White Sox were open to a contract extension, but no offers were made. That’s not surprising, as the White Sox aren’t known as a big-spending team (even moderately so) and are nowhere near a championship contender. Meanwhile, the White Sox and Crochette’s camp have wisely come up with a reasonable innings plan, but the chances of keeping Crochette are clearly diminishing. Likelihood of being traded: High.
Here are 16 starters who could be traded (in order of most to least valuable): Their likelihood of being traded is categorized as high, medium, low or very low.
2. Chris Bassitt, Blue Jays
The Yankees’ killer (0.82 career ERA) could interest the Orioles, but he’s more likely to remain in Toronto, as are Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette. Trade likelihood: Very unlikely.
3. Jesus Luzardo, Marlins
Trade plans being scaled back due to back issues. Trade Likelihood: Low.
4. Luis Severino, Mets
The Mets could still add to their championship contender list by trading their deep starting pitching staff, but their best pitcher seems less likely to be moved than Sean Manaea or Jose Quintana. Trade Likelihood: Very unlikely.
5. Yusei Kikuchi, Blue Jays
The Blue Jays are struggling and Kikuchi is set to become a free agent. Trade likelihood: Medium.
6. Tyler Anderson, Angels
He’s leading the WAR ranks in the second year of a three-year, $40 million contract. Trade Likelihood: Moderate.
7. Jack Flaherty, Tigers
The strikeout artist will need to recover from a sore back first. Trade Likelihood: Moderate.
8. Nick Pivetta, Red Sox
Boston would be a surprise candidate. Trade Likelihood: Very unlikely.
9. Zach Eflin (Rays)
Tampa Bay has already started selling. Likelihood of a trade: High.
10. Frankie Montas, Reds
He has great potential to have an ERA of over 100. Trade Potential: Moderate.
11. Jameson Taillon, Cubs
He’s a solid starting pitcher and clubhouse player, but could be moved if the Cubs sell him. Trade Likelihood: Moderate.
12. Sean Manaea, Mets
It would be nice to acquire a starting relief pitcher. Trade Likelihood: Low.
13. Erick Fedde, White Sox
He has had a career resurgence since returning from Korea. Trade Likelihood: High.
14. Paul Quantrill, Rockies
Colorado doesn’t like trades. Trade Likelihood: Medium.
15. Jose Quintana, Mets
He’s a solid veteran who has been playing well lately, so a trade is unlikely.
16. Zach Littell (Rays)
Lesser-known starters are likely to be moved. Trade Likelihood: High.
17. JP Sears, A’s
Back-end guy. Trade Potential: Moderate.
