By Jamie McGeever
Orlando, FL (Reuters) – Trading date
Late Push Lift Nasdaq will win first in 5 weeks
This week, many of the world's major central banks sent a strong message that the uncertainty caused by US President Donald Trump's trade war has robbed growth, inflation and dramatically reduced visibility into interest rate outlook.
It is a very unpredictable and nervous environment for investors to navigate, as reflected in the lack of clear direction across global markets this week.
The MSCI World Equity Index lost four-week streaks with a 0.7% rise, the S&P 500 rose 0.5% and Nasdaq earned 0.17%.
The US high-yield credit spread was tightened from the previous week's non-wide gold rose, but the Treasury was bordered, but the dollar was higher.
Those who want to be more clear about the political, policy or data aspects of next week can be troubling and lacking in direction, especially as the quarter approaches.
It's not just the end of the quarter – attention is also being paid to April 2, when President Trump is expected to announce more tariffs in many countries, including mutual taxation.
As policymakers revealed this week, uncertainty weighs heavily on businesses and consumers, potentially freezing investments, employment and spending. Investors may decide to put their plans on ice.
One of the most powerful investment trends this year is the reallocation of capital from Wall Street to overseas markets. US stocks are about 13 percentage points below the rest of the world.
Europe is a special beneficiary of these flows as it could significantly increase the growth of the German and Eurozone due to changes in Germany's historic fiscal policy. But, at least in the short term, how much juice remains in the transatlantic swing and the reversal of “US exceptional” trade?
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde warned that the immediate outlook is pessimistic thanks to the fog of trade. And state officials Austan Ghoolsby and John Williams Friday drove warnings for the male dogs the US Central Bank had created earlier this week.
I promise to be equally nervous next week. And fog.
I would like to hear from you so please contact me with a comment. You can also follow me at @reutersjamie and @reutersjamie.bsky.social.
[Latest Market Data segment]
Key market movements this week
* Gold will rise by 1%. Surprisingly, this is Gold's 11th weekly gain out of the last 12, accumulating a total increase of 16%. *NASDAQ rose 0.5% on Friday, producing something very late in the week, first occurring in five weeks. It avoided driving from April to May to May 2022, when the index was deepening into Bear Market territory. *The European Stoxx 600 index rose 1.2%, making its biggest gain in five weeks. It's the final push for the next week, and the index is well positioned to notch into the best quarter of 2020. *European defence stocks have only slipped for 0.5%, first loss in 6 weeks, 13 for 2 seconds. *The UK's 10-year gold leaf brings a three-week increase, with bonds holding back French and German debt on Friday at the fastest margin this year. The poor financial figures are another headshunt for Finance Minister Rachel Reeves ahead of the budget update next week. *Türkiye's markets are pestering as concerns over the detention of President Tayyip Erdogan's main political rival. The stock has the lyrus lamp 4%, the worst week since October 2008.
This week's chart
Not one of this week, but two charts for the week.
The first highlights the scale of Wall Street's inadequate performance this year and how quickly the “American exceptionalism” narrative faded. Big Technology, which has promoted gatherings in recent years, is even more behind.
The second shows that it was a quarter for the gold bug. Yellow metal has increased by 15%, the highest quarter since 2016. If we can grow to over 16% by March 31st, it will be our highest quarter since 1986.
What can you move through the market on Monday?
*China BYD revenue (Q4) *Purchase manager index (PMI) data from Japan, Germany, Eurozone, UK and the US (March)
Here are some of the best I've read this week:
1. The impact of tariffs on inflation – Boston Federal Paper 2. American pharmaceutical companies are not paying taxes in the US yet – Brad Sesser3. Save America's economy from Trump – Brad DeLong 4.
The opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News. Reuters News is committed to integrity, independence and freedom from bias under the principle of trust.
Trading days will also be sent via email on weekdays mornings. Do you think your friends and colleagues should know about us? We'll forward this newsletter to them. You can also sign up here too.
(Written by Jamie McGeeber)
