Declining Trends in Transgender and Queer Identities Among Youth

Recent findings suggest that identifying as transgender or queer is becoming less common among young people, especially those in elite circles. A report from the Heretical Social Science Center highlights this trend.

The study, conducted by Eric Kaufman, who leads the center and teaches political science at the University of Buckingham, indicates a significant drop in transgender and queer identification among Gen Z in the U.S. since 2023. Kaufman examined extensive data on gender and sexuality from various research bodies, including the Foundation for Individual Rights Expression (FIRE) and studies from prestigious institutions like Phillips Academy, Boston University, and Brown University.

Kaufman notes the sharp decline, stating that whether these identities will revert to pre-2010 levels is uncertain. However, the steep drop in just a couple of years is a notable and unexpected shift that educational and media organizations might find unpalatable. He elaborated on his findings in an article for UnHerd.

In his analysis of the latest FIRE survey conducted in 2025, which involved over 60,000 students, Kaufman discovered that only 3.6 percent identified as a gender outside the binary male or female spectrum, down from 5.2 percent in 2024 and 6.8 percent in both 2022 and 2023.

He emphasizes that the percentage of transgender-identifying students has effectively halved within two years. Notably, research from institutions like Phillips Academy and Brown University revealed even steeper declines. For instance, the percentage at Phillips Academy dropped from 9.2 percent in 2023 to just 3 percent in 2025. Similarly, Brown University saw a decline from 5 percent in 2022 and 2023 to 2.6 percent in 2025.

Further studies exploring sexual orientation reflected an increase in nonconformity from 2010 to 2023, followed by a nearly 10-point decline in 2024 and 2025. Interestingly, Kaufman pointed out that during the peak of transgender and queer identification, freshmen were more likely to identify as gender nonconforming than upperclassmen. Now, however, the trend has reversed, suggesting that younger students are identifying as less queer than their older peers.

While Kaufman refrains from making definitive judgments about this sudden decrease, he highlights correlations that merit closer examination. He suggests that the decline isn’t due to a shift toward less progressive views among youth or increased conservatism; these attitudes appear to have remained stable through the 2020s.

He questions what might be behind this sudden turnaround for transgender and queer individuals. Kaufman suggests that, in part, improved mental health correlates with lower rates of these identities. He observed a decrease in anxiety and depression among students, which seems linked to the reduction in those identifying as transgender, queer, or bisexual. Still, he cautions that while mental illness declined post-pandemic, shifts in gender identity took longer to manifest.

He believes that the rapid decline in transgender and queer identification resembles a trend or fashion cycle. Importantly, improved mental health played a role, but that seemed largely independent of shifts in political beliefs or social media habits.