Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed confidence that the U.S. will not face a recession in 2026, stating he’s “very optimistic” about the influence of President Trump’s tariffs and trade agreements.
When asked about the possibility of a recession next year, Bessent firmly answered “no.”
“I am very optimistic about 2026. We’ve positioned ourselves for robust non-inflationary growth,” Bessent shared during an appearance on “Meet the Press” with NBC News’ Kristen Welker.
He also indicated that Americans would experience relief as President Trump’s tariffs, trade agreements, and his “big, beautiful bill” take effect next year.
He mentioned that “health care will be disrupted,” noting that additional details on this topic would be provided later this week.
This marks a significant shift from earlier this year when Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan had increased their predictions of a U.S. recession to 65% and 60% after Trump announced “Emancipation Day” tariffs.
However, as negotiations aimed at reducing tariff rates progressed, those probabilities were lowered to around 30% and 40%.
Bessent did acknowledge some pressure in specific sectors, particularly housing.
Just this month, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett suggested that some areas of the economy might be slipping into recession.
Bessent remarked, “The housing market is struggling and sectors sensitive to interest rates are in recession.”
U.S. inflation reportedly increased to 3% in September, marking the fastest rate since January, according to the Consumer Price Index.
Bessent noted the government shutdown, which lasted a record 44 days, had also adversely affected the economy.
President Trump has been promoting affordability policies following concerns regarding the cost of living, which seemed to aid Democrats, including socialist New York Mayor-elect Zoran Mamdani, in recent elections.
According to the University of Michigan, consumer sentiment dropped to 50.3 in November due to inflation worries and the government shutdown, representing the lowest level in over three years, approaching record lows.
The latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated a rise in U.S. inflation to 3% in September and, coincidentally, an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.4%, the highest level in four years.
Consumers are noticing price hikes on various items—from coffee and children’s toys to living room furniture—as the holiday shopping season approaches.
Despite added jobs—119,000 in September—unemployment nonetheless rose to levels not seen in four years.
While President Trump had pledged to distribute $2,000 checks to most Americans by the midterm elections in 2026, Republican lawmakers have pushed back against this proposal.
Trump administration officials, however, maintain they are optimistic that the president’s policies will invigorate the economy.
In a separate interview, Hassett predicted a “blockbuster” year ahead.
He remarked, “The encouraging aspect for next year is that factories will be operational and people will be securing jobs alongside machines and other sectors.” This paints a rather hopeful picture for what lies ahead.
