After monitoring four different disturbances for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Basin, attention is currently focused on a tropical disturbance aimed at the southern Gulf of Mexico just as the hurricane season reaches its climatological peak on September 10th.
The disturbance spent more than a week traveling across the Atlantic as a tropical storm, clinging to a chaotic collection of showers and thunderstorms as it struggled to find the right conditions for development.
That won't change as the disturbance is currently located near Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula.
But forecasters say the wave could move into the Bay of Campeche on Saturday and interact with the front, according to the National Hurricane Center.
“We have a tropical wave and we're seeing rotation in the cloud pattern. The tropical wave is moving across interior Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula,” National Hurricane Director Dr. Michael Brennan told FOX Weather on Friday.
“And as it moves into the southern Gulf of Mexico, south of this boundary, it looks like it may encounter conditions that allow it to continue to develop.”
The storm is expected to move into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico early to mid-next week and could strengthen into a tropical depression, the NHC said.
The agency has rated the likelihood of a disturbance occurring over the next week as moderate, the highest rating it has received in recent days.
“We're predicting a 40 percent chance of development over the next week, which could result in a tropical storm developing in the region early to mid-next week, which could ultimately pose a threat to, say, somewhere along the western Gulf Coast,” Brennan said.
“It's still early to tell, but again, we've had a fairly long hiatus in the Atlantic, but we're still monitoring a number of systems. They just haven't had a very good chance of developing. But this is our best candidate right now.”
NHC chief: “Don't let your guard down”
Brennan warned people shouldn't give up on hurricane season just yet, despite a historically quiet period in the tropics over the past month.
“The main message to people right now is don't pay any attention to seasonal forecasts at all. Even in early September we still have about 60% of the activity of a typical hurricane season,” he said.
“And the big thing for Americans is that as we get into the second half of the season, the threat is getting closer to the U.S. There's a chance of a hurricane forming in the Caribbean off the East Coast or in the Gulf of Mexico, and it could be one of those short-lived hurricanes that we're always worried about.”
