After a few weeks of calm, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring a tropical disturbance in the Atlantic.
The disturbance, located east of the Lesser Antilles, is expected to interact with an approaching tropical depression over the next few days, according to the NHC.
There is a moderate chance of a disturbance developing, but the chances are increasing through the weekend.
“Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive to some development in the next day or two, with a tropical depression possibly developing around mid-week near or over the northern Leeward Islands, Greater Antilles or the southwest Atlantic,” the NHC said in its latest outlook.
From there, the NHC’s latest forecast predicts the storm will head toward Florida or the southeast coast.
If the system strengthens into a tropical storm, it will be named “Debby,” which would make it the fourth named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
“In terms of the Saharan dust, things are starting to calm down and will pick up (this season),” Fox Weather meteorologist Michael Estime said. “So we won’t have that dust in the atmosphere blocking or protecting us from the sunlight.”
Additionally, water temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico continue to rise, with current records generally in the mid- to upper 80s Fahrenheit.
It’s still a bit uncertain where this mess will go after it reaches the Lesser Antilles.
The Fox Forecast Center said interactions with mountains on large Caribbean islands will play a key role in the organization of this storm.
Meanwhile, two large areas of high pressure parked over the Southern Plains and the Atlantic Ocean near Bermuda could determine the storm’s final path, whether it rolls up the East Coast and heads toward Florida, or stays south and enters the Gulf of Mexico.
The disruption comes amid a relatively quiet hurricane season since Hurricane Beryl made landfall in Texas earlier this month.
