A tropical cyclone in the Caribbean is poised to potentially become a significant hurricane, but its exact trajectory remains unclear. Meteorologists are warning that the East Coast might face intense rain and strong winds as a result.
Initially forming on Tuesday, Tropical Storm Melissa transitioned into the fifth Atlantic hurricane of the year early Saturday near southern Jamaica. Forecasters anticipate a swift strengthening into a Category 3 hurricane by early Monday in the western Caribbean, as per the National Hurricane Center.
The storm, currently situated about 300 miles south-southwest of Port-au-Prince, is moving extremely slowly at approximately 2 mph, with sustained winds around 50 mph. FOX Weather meteorologist Dylan DeBruyn noted that the system’s path is “very uncertain” as it continues to swirl around the western Caribbean basin.
“We have high forecast uncertainty going into early next week, which could affect the East Coast,” DeBruyn shared, mentioning that various scenarios are currently being evaluated.
One possibility includes the storm gaining strength and speeding over Hispaniola before veering into the Atlantic Ocean. Alternatively, it might drift westward and be influenced by the jet stream, which could lead it towards the United States.
A direct strike on the East Coast seems “unlikely,” according to DeBruyn, but he cautioned that updates and forecasts may still shift.
The East Coast could experience heavy rainfall during the upcoming Halloween weekend, with predictions of storms developing in the Mid-Atlantic region. If Melissa veers close enough, it may also bring substantial rainfall and strong winds to the coastal areas, DeBruyn added.
“Right now, that’s not expected,” he emphasized.
Melissa is forecasted to deliver between 5 to 10 inches of rain to sections of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Jamaica through Saturday, raising concerns over flash flooding, mudslides, and dangerous surf conditions, according to the National Hurricane Center.
A hurricane watch is currently in effect for southern Haiti, while Jamaica is under a tropical storm watch.
It’s worth noting that hurricane season continues until November 30th.
