During his first term, President Trump developed a strong rapport with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, hosting joint rallies in Texas and India, where he praised Modi as one of America’s most devoted friends.
Modi was one of the first world leaders to visit the White House when Trump started his second term. However, relations between the US and India became strained amid the president’s trade wars and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
The current president has noted India’s trade imbalance with the US and its economic connections with Russia, threatening to raise the 25% tariff in the coming days.
This friction has unsettled partnerships that both political parties view as crucial in addressing challenges from China.
“He doesn’t want to damage his relationship with Modi,” stated Derek Grossman, a professor of international relations at the University of Southern California, regarding Trump’s approach.
“It’s personal for Trump; if Modi is seen as a good friend, Trump would likely need a solid reason to jeopardize that bond.”
Trump has targeted India as a problematic trade partner, highlighting a trade deficit of approximately $46 billion during his global trade disputes. Additionally, India is the second largest source of Russian oil imports after China.
“People often overlook that India has very high tariffs. We don’t engage much with them because of that,” Trump remarked recently.
“While we settled on 25%, given the situation with Russian oil, I’m committed to addressing this quickly. If India continues to support Russia, I can’t say I’d support that.”
These comments have sparked diverse reactions on social media, reflecting a notable shift in Trump’s tone.
In his first term, the connection between Trump and Modi appeared affectionate, showcased by events like the “Howdy Modi” rally in Texas in 2019, which attracted 50,000 attendees, and the “Namaste Trump” rally in India, which drew in 100,000 people.
During Modi’s visit in February, although Trump expressed it was “fair” for the US to impose tariffs on American exports, the meeting was largely amicable, resulting in new initiatives focused on enhancing military, commercial, and technical cooperation.
Democratic lawmakers have expressed concerns regarding human rights issues in India, facilitated by non-profit Freedom House’s evaluations on democratic practices. There’s a growing bipartisan recognition that India could be an essential ally against China’s expanding influence.
“Both the Biden administration and the previous Trump administration view India as a significant ally in countering China’s power across the Indo-Pacific region,” Grossman pointed out.
Nevertheless, challenges persist. India is cautious, as it operates on the principle of “strategic autonomy,” ensuring it can establish relations freely with various nations.
Additionally, India has pushed back against Trump’s claims of having brokered a ceasefire with Pakistan following recent conflicts. Modi reportedly informed Trump in a June phone call that the US did not contribute to halting the violence.
Simultaneously, Pakistan nominated Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize, and he hosted Pakistan’s Army Chief at the White House in June.
According to Grossman, the dispute regarding the India-Pakistan ceasefire may contribute to some existing tensions between Trump and Modi.
The president hasn’t specified how much tariffs on India will rise, but he did mention purchasing Russian oil, suggesting it should be sold for substantial profits. He had previously indicated plans to implement penalties for India’s military and energy ties with Russia during the Ukraine conflict.
India’s Foreign Ministry criticized the US and the EU for “targeting” them over Russian oil imports when they felt compelled to secure energy supplies amid global shifts.
“Importing Russian oil is about ensuring consistent and affordable energy for our consumers. We’re navigating these challenges based on market conditions,” the ministry’s statement noted, pointing out perceived double standards regarding Russia’s dealings with Europe amid the war.
This focus on India’s role in supporting Russia during the Ukraine war is a recent development, as trade talks between the US and India appear to have stalled.
Key officials in the Trump administration have asserted for months that negotiations with India are currently suspended. Vice President Pence’s visit to India in April had initially signaled progress.
However, after several months, tangible agreements have yet to materialize. India has set boundaries to protect its agriculture and dairy sectors, with reported resistance to reducing certain imports.
It also seems that Trump is strategically leveraging India in his dealings with Russia, especially with deadlines for “secondary tariffs” approaching in Moscow.
The Senate is pushing for a 500% tariff on nations purchasing Russian oil, while Trump suggested he could impose 100% tariffs on countries engaging with Russia.
Stephen Miller, a close advisor to Trump, encapsulated the complexities of US-India relations in a recent interview, stating, “Despite portraying India as a key ally, they impose high tariffs on our products and have immigration policies that negatively impact American workers.”
Aman Tucker, vice president at Asia Group, mentioned that the draft trade agreement had initially set tariffs between 13-15% for India, with reductions for most sectors except selected agricultural products.
He indicated optimism that National Security Council officials would head to India soon to continue negotiations, implying that talks are still active.
“It seems to be an attempt to secure a more favorable deal than what was originally presented. The president seems determined to use leverage to get the best outcome,” he noted.
Tucker also commented on the uncertain prospects regarding India’s Russian oil purchases, suggesting that both sides could still engage and find solutions, referencing past collaborations during Trump’s administration.
“Ultimately, it really hinges on how things progress in the coming weeks. If tariffs increase, it may escalate tensions unproductively,” he concluded.
