Trump campaign senior adviser Susie Wiles has pitched to skeptical Senate Republicans that the former president will boost his nominee, and Washington says Trump is a burden to Republicans in Senate battlegrounds. challenges long-held beliefs.
Wiles highlighted polling data in a meeting with Senate Republicans this week, saying that Trump is winning in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — states won by Biden in 2020 — that will determine future control of the Senate. showed a lead over President Biden.
Despite Senate Republicans expressing concerns early in the election cycle that Mr. Trump would not be competitive in the 2024 general election, Mr. He is polling more favorably than the candidate.
After hearing from Wiles, Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), an early skeptic of President Trump, said he was much more concerned about Trump’s chances of winning the Senate race and gaining an advantage. I felt positive.
“He seems to be doing pretty well, but it’s clear he’s not taking anything for granted. He has a very good chance of winning the Senate, especially in the battleground states where Mr. Wiles has the most momentum.” ” Cornyn said after Wiles briefed Republican senators at the annual retreat at the Library of Congress.
Senate Democrats currently hold a 51-49 majority and are expected to lose the seat held by retiring Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin in deep red West Virginia.
This means that unless Republicans take control of the White House in November, they only need to win one more seat to regain control of the Senate, in which case the vice president would have the power to break tie votes. As a result, Republicans will control the Senate with a 50-50 split.
Mr. Cornyn used his smartphone to search a list of polls in Senate battleground states that showed Mr. Trump defeating Mr. Biden in states where Republicans were trying to flip Democratic-held seats.
“Arizona…Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin,” Cornyn said. “He operates in each state.
Cornyn then looked at polling averages for those states compiled by Real Clear Politics.
On Thursday night, Real Clear Politics reviewed the latest polling averages and found that Trump averaged 5.2 points in Arizona, 3.5 points in Michigan, 21.5 points in Montana, 10 points in Ohio and Nevada. It showed him leading Biden in the state by 5.6 points, a 2-point margin. -One-third of a point in Pennsylvania and one point in Wisconsin.
Democratic senators hold seats in Montana, Ohio, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, while Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I) and Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) hold seats in Arizona and Michigan. He is retired, making it easier for Republicans to win in these states.
“So that’s encouraging,” Cornyn said.
That’s a more optimistic view than Cornyn expressed last year when he questioned President Trump’s ability to appeal to moderate voters enough to win the general election.
“Trump’s era is over,” Cornyn told reporters in Texas in May.
“I think the most important thing to me is that we have a candidate who can actually win,” he said.
“I don’t think President Trump understands that if he runs in a general election, he has to appeal to voters beyond his base,” he said at the time.
Fast forward to 2024 and those calculations appear to have changed. Meanwhile, Trump defeated the presumptive race for the Republican presidential nomination. Mr. Cornyn is currently running to become the next Senate Republican leader.
Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky), who will step down from his leadership post after this Congress, said he and many members of Congress were confused about the net loss of Republican Senate seats in the 2022 midterm elections. ” and criticized him for being “negative.” His colleagues believed that Trump had emerged onto the national political stage after losing the 2020 presidential election.
“Here’s the problem: We underperformed among voters who didn’t like President Biden’s performance, among independents, among moderate Republicans. They looked at us and came to that conclusion.” [there was] There’s been too much confusion and too much negativity, and we’ve turned away a lot of these centrist voters,” said Senate Republicans who returned disappointed in the 2022 elections. Afterward, McConnell told reporters.
Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., who attended a dinner where Republican senators heard an encouraging report on the Trump campaign’s progress, said his opinion of Trump’s political viability was changing within the group. Stated.
“He’s actually doing a little bit better than the Senate candidates in all the states that have overlays,” he said of Senate battleground states where Trump is ahead of Biden in polls. That’s a good thing.”
Senate Republican strategists say Trump’s polling numbers reflect long-standing sentiment among some Republicans that Trump will derail hopes of retaking the Senate if he leads the vote in 2024. He said that the commonly held beliefs are being shaken.
“I think these numbers are accurate,” the strategist said, referring to Trump’s strong polling in the Senate battlegrounds. “I always thought the conventional wisdom about it was always wrong.
“Rather, Trump actually has unique voter control that traditional Republicans don’t have, especially in Rust Belt states, especially Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin,” the source said. Told.
Sen. Thom Tillis, RN.C., said Mr. Trump could energize Republican voters in certain parts of the country.
“These states are like fingerprints, they’re all very different. I think he’s been very helpful in some states and is probably pushing up others as well,” Tillis said, adding that Trump believes his own He added that he contributed to Republican turnout in the 2020 Senate reelection race.
“Democrats have a big problem with voter turnout. They don’t have a passionate base, and one of the things President Trump is doing is getting his base excited.” “If that turns the turnout on our side, that’s fine.”
Although there is widespread optimism among Republican senators about President Trump’s political appeal, some remain skeptical.
Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), who supports Nikki Haley in the Republican presidential primary and won’t vote for Trump, said that although it may encourage people to vote in some states, , said the former president still alienated many voters. .
“I think there are probably places in the United States where Trump’s support and Trump’s influence could make a difference, but I also think the candidates he supports are important,” she said. “Even if it’s a very red, very pro-Trump state, if you have a bad candidate, you can still lose.
“And I think there are some states where Trump’s support and support could actually work against Republican candidates, especially women who are very concerned about some of the reproductive health issues. That’s true in areas where there are people,” she said.
“I don’t think we should make a blanket statement that his approval guarantees victory,” she added. “I think we tend to say, ‘If you’re a Republican and you can get the support of a Republican candidate, that’s good enough.'”
National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Steve Daines (Montana) has worked closely with Trump, leading to a fierce battle among Senate Republican leaders, including Tim Sheehy of Montana and former Rep. Mike Rogers (R). They have steered support for candidates they see as the most electable in the state. In Michigan.
Another Republican senator, who requested anonymity, said Biden faces bigger political headwinds and “that’s the biggest headwind of the campaign.”
But the congressman cautioned that Trump is a very unpredictable candidate, and his performance could be highly volatile as the 2024 campaign season unfolds.
“I don’t have much faith in polls because they were horribly wrong in recent elections. They make sense, but for a candidate who can do a lot of unexpected things, this campaign is still It’s a long road,” the senator said.
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