President-elect Trump has made ambitious promises to end Russia's war in Ukraine and confront China, but from drone surveillance to sabotage in the air, sea and air, foreign adversaries are It is also combating the growing threat of “grey zone” attacks. On land.
These hybrid tactics are intentionally difficult to track, and NATO allies on the front lines of tensions with Russia say the alliance is not doing enough to respond.
“Whether the level of deterrence in that area is sufficient is probably still an answer,” Christian Prik, Estonia's ambassador to the United States, told The Hill during a conversation at the Atlantic Council last month.
“But unfortunately, when it comes to resilience, it is not an end state that can be declared. … It is an ongoing process of maintaining and improving levels of resilience.”
Despite its geographic distance from geopolitical flashpoints in Europe and Asia, the United States is not immune to hybrid attacks, as highlighted by a Chinese reconnaissance balloon that flew over the United States in 2023.
Military analysts believe drones spotted late last year over British and German military installations (where American troops are stationed) may have been part of a state-sponsored surveillance mission. A US official familiar with the incident said. new york times.
Concerns that drones could cause problems closer to home grew ahead of the holidays, with reports of mysterious drone swarms in many East Coast states. U.S. officials maintain that none of the unmanned objects are believed to be foreign surveillance drones.
President Trump, who is set to begin his second term in just under two weeks, will almost certainly have to contend with gray zone tactics even if he succeeds in bringing the Ukraine war to a quick end, as he often promises.
Analysts say Russia, Iran, China and other NATO adversaries view “gray zone” sabotage as a low-risk, high-profit operation.
NATO allies are likely to pursue the issue at their annual summit in July, when they are scheduled to update their strategies for countering hybrid warfare, largely because of the persistent threat posed by Russia.
Among the most concerning sabotage activities are: Suspected Russian conspiracywas identified in July for the purpose of loading explosives onto planes bound for the United States and Canada. In December, two undersea communications cables in the Baltic Sea were recently damaged in what appeared to be sabotage. Finnish police suspect ship carrying Russian oil damaged the cable But it did not point out that Russia was directing the campaign.
In July, the United States sanctioned two Russian individuals from the Russia-based “hacktivist” group Cyber Army of Russia Reborn (CARR) for targeting a water treatment facility in Texas. The US has not accused the Kremlin of directing the attack, but the CARR group associated with the Russian military.
These events are part of a long list of events that have occurred in NATO territory in recent years, in which Russia is the main suspect. These include assassination attempts on British and German territory. Explosion at Czech ammunition depot. Weaponizing illegal immigration into Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, and Finland. Signal jamming to disrupt civil aviation in the Baltic Sea region.
At the NATO summit in Washington in July, alliance members decided in a communiqué to “determine and continue to take further steps to counter Russia's hybrid threats and actions, individually and collectively.” “We will continue to work closely together,” he said, without specifying specific targeted actions. Moscow.
NATO's eastern flank has been the loudest in warning against gray zone attacks. At a summit in July, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan told Baltic officials that NATO countries should take some risks because Russia's hybrid activities are too cost-effective to stop. He said he is likely to accept it.
Russia has repeatedly denied involvement in hybrid attacks against NATO.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: “All these statements and marches by European countries are completely baseless and we firmly refute them all.” told reporters in May when asked about a series of Russian-led sabotage acts.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, during a major speech He outlined the alliance's priorities in December, saying Russia was engaged in a long-term conflict with NATO aimed at destabilizing democratic societies and blocking support for Ukraine.
“This is not a traditional war. This is not Article 5, but we have to defend ourselves,” he added, citing a key clause in the Treaty of Alliance that provides for the right of collective self-defense, meaning that one member state mentioned that if the United Nations were attacked, all other member states would have to come to its defense. .
As part of NATO's response to hybrid attacks, it is increasing intelligence sharing among allies to identify where seemingly criminal activity may rise to the level of sabotage. Arrest the perpetrators and execute their convictions. Increase the level of awareness in the public and private sectors. Build resilience in the cyber realm to withstand attacks on critical infrastructure.
“The way we decided to not only share more information, but actually step up our game by naming and shaming… but also the people who carried out some of these acts of destruction. We have also decided to actually convict…I think this is already causing problems at the level of deterrence,” Estonian Ambassador Prick told The Hill.
In mid-December, the European Union imposed sanctions for the first time on people allegedly involved in pro-Russian hybrid threats and appointed four senior commissioners to counter such sabotage.
Also in December, members of the bipartisan Helsinki Commission A report has been published A study of Russia's hybrid warfare activities beyond 2022 identifies 150 hybrid operations in NATO territory, divided into four main categories: attacks on critical infrastructure, violent operations, armed migration, election interference and information operations. Ru.
The report notes that Russian sabotage across North America and Europe has accelerated since Moscow invaded Ukraine, with the goal of “destabilizing and impoverishing the transatlantic alliance and blocking support for Ukraine. It concludes that the United States is attempting to wage a shadow war against NATO.
But the report warned that its findings underestimated the true scale of the threat and called on NATO leaders to unite in taking Russia's hybrid operations seriously or else. It warned of a risk of escalation, both in Ukraine and within NATO borders.
