Trump faces tougher challenge in New Hampshire after Iowa romp

Former President Trump easily defeated his rivals in the Iowa caucuses, but he will face a tougher challenge in New Hampshire, the nation's first primary as he looks to solidify his status as the inevitable Republican nominee.

Trump is in a strong position heading into the Jan. 23 election in the Granite State, where he won by about 55,000 votes (20 percentage points) in the party's last contested primary in 2016. won.

According to the Decision Desk Headquarters-Hill polling average, Trump has an 8-point lead over former New Hampshire ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley.

But there are several factors that could pave the way for Haley, who has emerged as perhaps Trump's toughest challenger for the Republican nomination, to victory.

Independents will be able to vote in New Hampshire's primary, but the state's electorate is deeply conservative and very different from the evangelical state of Iowa, and Ms. Haley has spent more time in the state than Mr. Trump. The number of votes has been increasing in recent weeks.

New Hampshire has also historically enjoyed a role as a counterweight to Iowa, and although President Trump enters this week as the favorite, a counterintuitive result would not be shocking.

It will also create the atmosphere of a true preliminary race for the first time this cycle.

“If she beats him in New Hampshire, I think there's going to be a lot of uncertainty. It's going to be a huge story,” said a former senator who worked on Sen. Marco Rubio's (R-Fla.) 2016 presidential campaign. said Alex Conant.

different constituencies

Trump has an edge in Iowa, where Republican voters tend to be evangelical and socially conservative. According to admissions polls, Trump received 53% of the vote from white evangelicals, compared to just 13% for Haley.

But in New Hampshire, the state is less religious and more liberal.

Parts of New Hampshire are essentially suburbs of Boston, and New Hampshire has supported a Democrat for president every election cycle since 2000, reflecting how moderate the state is compared to Iowa. It shows whether there is.

“The nature of the voter world is different. The issue settings are different,” said Jim Merrill, a veteran Republican strategist based in New Hampshire. “No wonder Mike Huckabee, Ted Cruz and Rick Santorum all won at Iowa. All three lead with conviction, and that paid off at Iowa.”

Primary Party vs. Caucus

New Hampshire's demographics, as well as the nature of the key process compared to the Iowa caucuses, could give Haley a boost as the coalition relies more on independent voters and voters who supported President Biden in 2020. There is sex.

New Hampshire allows undeclared voters to participate in party primaries, meaning independents and Republicans alike can vote in the Republican primary. Registered Democrats cannot participate, and the deadline to change party affiliation in the state passed several months ago.

“New Hampshire is interesting,” President Trump said during a Fox News town hall earlier this month. “It's a great place, a great state, and incredible people. But we're allowing independents and Democrats to vote in the Republican primary. “What does that mean?'' you say.

“I'm a little wrong on that point, but I still think we'll win materially,” he added.

Haley's third-place finish in Iowa reflects the type of coalition she relies on.Exit polls revealed Haley won 63 percent of caucus attendees More people identified themselves as moderate or liberal than any other candidate. She won 34% of self-identified independents, trailing Trump by 8 points in this category.

In some ways, the New Hampshire primary is more accessible than the caucus format. The caucus format requires voters to appear at a specific time and in a specific location to hear speeches from each side before voting.

“The caucus is responding to the needs of activists who are really deeply involved, people who are deeply involved in party politics,” Merrill said. “New Hampshire has an open primary, so obviously there is a strong Republican involvement, but there are also undeclared voters who are not affiliated with any political party.”

Haley is making a lot of money in New Hampshire.

Ms. Haley has invested significant time and resources in New Hampshire, making it an even more important state for her if she seeks to reverse Mr. Trump's march to the nomination.

“We've been here 11 months. We've visited over 75 city halls,” Haley said on Fox News on Tuesday.

She has the backing of Gov. Chris Sununu (R), whose controversial comments earlier this month about New Hampshire “fixing” Iowa's results are a sign of how much she expects to do well in the Granite State. It reflects what you are doing.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) has spent little time campaigning in New Hampshire, while former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie (R) has campaigned almost exclusively in New Hampshire. Haley could benefit from the Republican Party's withdrawal from the race last week.

Trump has held only a handful of events in New Hampshire in recent months, but he plans to hold at least five rallies in the state in the days leading up to the primary and is well known among New Hampshire voters. It has become an important presence.

Mr. Trump and his team hope to win at all costs next week, effectively ending any questions about whether an alternative will emerge in the primaries.

But polls in upcoming states on the primary calendar highlight just how dominant President Trump is set to be, regardless of the outcome in New Hampshire.

An Emerson College poll released on January 9th shows Trump leading DeSantis by a whopping 65 percentage points in the Nevada caucuses, although some candidates voted in the state's primary vote rather than in the caucuses. chose to participate.

An Emerson College poll released on January 5 shows Trump leading Haley by 29 points in her home state of South Carolina.

“At the end of the day, it's about winning and losing. If Trump loses New Hampshire, he's going to be a loser for the next three to four weeks,” said Conant, a former Rubio aide who now works at Firehouse Strategies. said. “That would change the course of the race really quickly. On the other hand, if we win the first two games, [states]I don't know what the argument is that Haley will start winning in other states. ”