WASHINGTON — Veteran Republican strategists on Wednesday overwhelmingly declared Vice President Kamala Harris the winner of her debate against former President Donald Trump, sparking concern and debate within the party about the impact on what is expected to be the closest election in at least two decades.
The 78-year-old leading Republican activist who supports Trump told The Washington Post at an ABC News debate in Philadelphia on Tuesday that national support has likely tipped 1 percentage point in favor of Democrats, at least for now.
If true, that could tip the battleground states that determine the Electoral College in Harris' favor. The 59-year-old and Trump are currently tied in Pennsylvania and within one point of each other in Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina, according to an average of recent polls from RealClearPolitics.
Other Trump allies argued that the vice president's strategic win doesn't really matter, pointing out that a pre-debate poll by The New York Times and Siena College showed that 28% of voters Only 50% said they needed to know more about Harris, while just 9% said the same about Trump.
“If you were an undecided voter who was hoping to finally hear Kamala Harris' policy agenda last night, all you heard was a canned attack line against Trump because Harris is the incumbent and isn't going to change course,” a former Trump White House official told The Post.
A veteran Republican strategist lamented that the debate was “just a missed opportunity” for Trump to gain an edge over Harris, with the GOP candidate making “clearly divergent” comments that distracted from criticism of Harris's performance as vice president and her shifting stance on key issues.
“What was really striking to me was the host asked her about Afghanistan, which was kind of a layup, and then Trump, you know, wants to bring up NATO again,” the person recalled.
“One of [Trump] “The thing I find most contradictory is the 'Biden hates her' claim,” the strategist added.
“Whether that's true or not, it's not helpful to voters' thinking and it's counter to the larger points you're trying to make.”
Though Trump officially claimed he won the debate, many of his supporters have privately, and in some cases publicly, argued otherwise, with former Rep. Trey Gowdy (R-SC) declaring on Fox News Wednesday morning that the debate was a “land of missed opportunities” for the 45th president.
Both campaigns have data to back up the optimistic reports, and insiders say there are likely plenty of further developments in the race in the 55 days leading up to the Nov. 5 election.
Trump ally tells Reuters Focus Groups Of the 10 undecided voters, six said they would support Trump after the debate, while three chose Harris.
CNN/SSRS contradictions Snap Survey A survey of debate viewers showed that before the debate, viewers were split down the middle, but after the debate, 63% clearly thought Harris had won.
“For Trump supporters, that's not an issue.”
A big question mark after the debate is whether Trump, who has been the dominant figure in US politics for nearly a decade and a master of generating new news cycles, will suffer long-term harms.
“For Trump supporters, that's not an issue,” said Dennis Lennox, a Republican strategist and commentator in the battleground state of Michigan.
“Like a sports team that lost, they will complain about the umpire when the former president clearly dropped the ball. Trump lost the debate because of his performance, or lack thereof. This is what happens when you do it haphazardly,” he said.
“The hosts' biased fact-checking and out-of-context quotes from both sides attempting to hurl political vitriol leave undecided voters with only style and popularity as measures for voting for president,” said Dave Wilson, a former television journalist and Republican strategist in South Carolina.
“Unfortunately, Trump fell into some traps that he shouldn't have fallen into, but I don't think there was one thing that happened that stuck in people's minds that changed how they thought about the campaign,” Wilson said.
“It's been awful,” a veteran campaign adviser said of hosts David Muir and Lindsay Davis. “I have no idea what the Republican campaign plans to do in the long term. I mean, it's pretty clear that the mainstream media has really decided that they have an ethical and moral obligation to go all in with the Democrats in a ridiculous way.”
“I'm not necessarily the most pro-Trump person in the world, but this was an absolutely nasty attack from start to finish,” he added. “It's disgraceful. David Muir should never go near a debate stage again.”
Another Republican strategist described Harris as a “disciplined” person on stage who avoided scrutiny of her record and policy changes by sticking to a script, while repeatedly thwarting Trump by trolling rally turnout and other unrelated points.
“Even if it was a complete fabrication, Kamala Harris won the debate because she presented herself as an effective leader with a plan to improve the lives of Americans,” the strategist told The Post.
“But what was most shocking about her performance was how she repeatedly distracted Trump and took him off message. She was the most disciplined candidate onstage and it was very disappointing to witness.”
“She announced her plan the morning of the debate,” former New Hampshire Republican Rep. Ross Berry told The Post about the Democratic candidate.
“They're trying to get Kamala to start over,” added Berry, who also serves as director of the anti-Trump Never Back Down PAC, which supports Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. “They're just letting people project what they want to believe onto her. So I think the more Kamala participates in the debates, the less opportunity there is to run what's called a 'tone' campaign, as opposed to a policy campaign.”
The only saving grace for Republican strategist John Fehery is that Trump didn't come across as overly combative toward Harris.
“What's great about this debate is that it wasn't a repeat of the first time Trump debated Biden in 2020 and lost the election. I don't think Trump acted like a jerk,” Feehely told The Washington Post.
Fehery said he regretted that Trump did not prepare more thoroughly, stressing that the Harris and Waltz campaigns “made it pretty much public that they were trying to embarrass Trump,” and that Trump seemed ill-prepared for expected questions, such as on abortion.
“Inside Washington, Trump clearly lost,” he summarized, “but outside Washington, I think he probably held on and maybe even won.”
“He wasn't having a good day.”
As soon as Tuesday's debate ended, Harris' campaign asked for a second showdown, but Feeley thought Trump should turn down the offer.
“I think she's a very good liar,” he said. “I don't think it's worth lying.”
Others disagreed.
“He’s a good debater. I mean, I don’t think anybody would dispute the fact that he didn’t have a good day. He didn’t have a great debate. [would give] “It gives him another opportunity to speak directly to the American people,” Republican strategist Brian Darling argued.
Darling, a former staffer for Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), expressed optimism that Trump will learn lessons from the first debate and stay “more on message” and less distracted.
While Darling acknowledged that Ms Harris had “communicated her views quite well”, he argued that Mr Trump had had some success with his messaging on the economy and immigration.
He went on to speculate that once the dust settles, the debate will be “less important” as the news cycle moves quickly by election night.
“We obsess about poll numbers and debates and we talk about them constantly, but they don't actually mobilize that many voters,” he argued. “Moving voters is the problem.”
Republican strategist Terry Holt said a series of polls have shown the race between Trump and Harris to be extremely close, and that Trump's performance in the debate could have a small impact after Harris emerges as the “clear winner.”
Holt, a former congressional aide and adviser to former President George W. Bush, said it could be a “factor” in the outcome of the election, but it would not be the “deciding factor.”
“Donald Trump didn't need to win the debate, and he didn't,” he said. “Kamala took the task much more seriously and was much better prepared.”
