James Myers of OAN
Wednesday, June 12, 2024 3:30 p.m.
Former President Donald Trump has a two-thirds chance of winning the November presidential election. Economist The election prediction model was released on Wednesday.
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The model currently predicts that President Trump has a 66 in 100 chance of winning, and President Joe Biden has a 33 in 100 chance of winning.
Result is, Decision Desk Headquarters and The Hill It was released last month.
The latest version of the model gives Trump a 56 in 100 chance of winning the presidential election, while Biden has a 44 in 100 chance of winning.
In mid-June 2020, the same model predicted Biden had an 83% chance of winning the White House.
“Our model is updated daily and combines state and national polls with economic indicators to forecast election outcomes across the country. To forecast the electoral vote count, we run more than 10,000 election simulations.” economist Said.
moreover, economist Models released on Tuesday showed Trump receiving 296 electoral votes and Biden receiving 242. A total of 270 electoral votes would be needed to win the presidency.
economist The election will be decided by six states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – which together will have 77 electoral votes.
Trump won five of the six states in the 2016 election, while Biden won all six in the 2020 election.
economist The forecast also included a ranking of states important to candidates from each major party.
Meanwhile, Michigan is seen as the most important state for Biden to win reelection: failing to win the Great Lakes state would drop Biden’s chances of winning to just 5 in 100.
“If a candidate wins in Michigan, he’s likely to have a lead in Wisconsin as well.” economist Said.
The next most important states for Biden are Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, but without Pennsylvania his chances of winning overall drop to 7 in 100, and without Wisconsin his chances drop to 9 in 100.
Pennsylvania was deemed the most important state for Trump in his bid to retake the White House.
But even without the Keystone States, the model gives him a 21 in 100 chance of winning the election.
meanwhile, economist The model also shows Trump leading 45% to 44.2% in an average of national polls.
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